Background: Radiofrequency ablation(RFA) has emerged as a common
approach to treatment of atrial fibrillation(AF) coupled with valve
surgery. However, risk factors were rarely reported on recurrence after
RFA of valvular atrial fibrillation . Methods: Retrospective study of a
single-center database was performed in patients underwent valvular
surgery combined with radiofrequency ablation. Follow-up was conducted
from 3 months to 1 year after procedure. AF recurrence was defined as
any episode of atrial arrhythmia lasting more than 30 seconds. Risk
factors were analysis using Logistic regression and a predictive model
was established. Results: 3-month follow-up was completed in 319
patients, 195 patients (61.1%) had AF recurrence. During the 1-year
follow-up, 74 /166 patients(44.6%) had AF recurrence. Compared with
sinus rhythm maintenance group, overweight(p=0.022), high BMI(p=0.024),
large preoperative LAD(p<0.001), small MI area(p=0.019), large
MI diameter(p<0.001) and other liver function parameter like
low ALT level(p=0.023), high total bilirubin(p=0.013) and direct
bilirubin level(p=0.033) were significantly correlated with AF
recurrence after RF. In multivariate analysis, BMI(OR 1.12, 95% CI
1.04-1.21, p=0.003), LAD(OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.09-2.07, p=0.015), MI
area(OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.18-0.85, p=0.023), MI diameter(OR 2.45, 95% CI
1.16-5.34, p=0.021), ALT(OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99, p=0.002) and
eGFR(OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.09-1.02, p=0.042) were significantly independent
risk predictors of AF early recurrence. A predictive model was created
with AUC of 0.720. Conclusions: BMI、LAD、MI area、MI diameter、ALT and
eGFR were risk predictors of AF early recurrence. We established a
predictive model and it devote to preoperative clinical health
management of individual with valvular AF.