Local Ceasefires and De-escalation: Evidence From the Syrian Civil War

Abstract

Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring their short- and long-term effects on the intensity of armed violence. Drawing on scholarship on gradual confidence-building processes, we theorize the conditions under which local ceasefire agreements may generate trust and reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis and spatial panel regression, we examine factors relating to the design and strategic context of ceasefire agreements. We find that local ceasefire agreements can trigger both escalation and de-escalation in the short term. De-escalatory outcomes are more likely in the long-term, when ceasefire signatories share a history of previous interaction, and when ceasefires are implemented in a stepwise fashion. We also find evidence of spatial diffusion: local ceasefire agreements in one area reduce conflict intensity in neighboring areas.

Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda

“…Karakus and Svensson 2020; Sosnowski 2020) which suspend hostilities within a section of the larger battlefield These local arrangements are a common but poorly understood part of conflict (also see Duursma (2022)). Lundgren, Svensson, and Karakus (2022) , in this special section, show that the contents of a ceasefire also matter for local ceasefire. They find that violence is more likely to decrease in cases where agreements include provisions for stepwise implementation, that is, they detail how an agreement will be rolled out in a gradual manner.…”

“…For practitioners, we note in particular that contexts favorable to ceasefires are shown to be those with a recent history of collaboration between the conflict parties (Lundgren, Svensson, and Karakus (2022)), and other state-non-state dyads (Bara and Clayton (2022)). Successful ceasefires are also shown to create an environment more favorable for political settlements by providing cover for rebels.…”

“…An example of a relatively robust finding is that ceasefires that include implementation mechanisms (e.g. monitoring, step-wise provisions, or UN support) are more effective at deescalating local violence (Lundgren, Svensson, and Karakus (2022)), producing non-state agreements (Duursma (2022)), and generating the cooperative reputation that leads to reciprocal behavior in other dyads (Bara and Clayton (2022)). This complements prior quantitative work on this topic (see Fortna 2004; Clayton and Sticher 2021).…”

“…Duursma , in this special section, shows that this finding extends to non-state conflict, wherein mediation by peacekeepers is shown to be effective. Yet mediated local ceasefires are also shown to be associated with violence escalation rather than de-escalation (in Syria at least) (Lundgren, Svensson & Karakus, 2022), while peacekeeping alone seems to have no positive impact on the likelihood of a ceasefire in intra-state contexts (Bara & Clayton, 2022) These findings might be consistent (e.g. peacekeeping mediation increases the likelihood of non-state ceasefires, but these ceasefires are not effective at preventing violence), driven by some selection effect (e.g.…”

Your Reputation Precedes You: Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict

“…States can use ceasefire to build a reputation for cooperation. Prior ceasefire research has revealed the important signaling role that ceasefires can perform during a peace process, but has until now focused only on the direct relationship between a state and non-state group (Clayton and Sticher 2021), or between non-state groups (Duursma 2022; Lundgren, Svensson, and Karakus 2022). We extend this work, showing the broader role that ceasefires play in shaping the reputation of a state, and how this impacts other concurrent peace processes.…”