Location specific climate change scenario and its impact on rice and wheat in Central Indian Punjab

Jalota, S.K.; Vashisht, B.B.; Kaur, Harsimran; Kaur, Samanpreet; Kaur, Prabhjyot

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2014.07.009

Cited by 29 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The predicted grain-WUE ranged from 119 to 186 kg/(hm 2 •cm) in A2 scenario and from 140-185 kg/(hm 2 •cm) in B2 scenario. Although WUE depends on water balance components and, consequently, varies with location and time slice [33] , the reduced WUE obtained in this study compared well with published results of other similar studies [34] . However, due to the likely occurrence of temperature and precipitation in appropriate proportions resulting from climate change, the WUE, compared to baseline, would increase in 2040.…”

Section: Water Use Efficiencysupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The lowest WUE for grain production, obtained for the year 2100, was 27.6 kg/(hm 2 •cm) in B2 scenario and 19.1 kg/(hm 2 •cm) in A2 scenario. The WUE decreased, likely, due to the change of climatic parameters (e.g., increasing precipitation), and soil and crop management practices that would influence water balance for cultivation of the crops [33] .…”

Section: Water Use Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT

Rahman

Mojid

Banu

2018

International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering

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The potential consequences of climate change emanated from global warming are very alarming; the greatest concern is the potentially disastrous consequences on crop agriculture and food security in many parts of the world. Bangladesh is a country highly susceptible to climate change, but information in this regard is still inadequate. This study investigated the effects of climate change on three major crops-wheat, potato and rice-in the north-central region of Bangladesh. Two climate change scenarios, A2 and B2, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were generated by employing MAGICC/SCENGEN model together with the observed climate data of the region. The growth and yield of the crops were simulated using DSSAT CERES-Wheat, SUBSTOR-Potato and CERES-Rice models under the present and projected future changing climatic conditions. For a predicted 5.32ºC increase in temperature in the year 2100, the yield of wheat, rice and potato would decrease by 47.6%, 67.8% and 38.6%, respectively. The increased temperature would accelerate physiological maturity of the crops as reflected by their reduced length of growing season (LGS) by 1.20% to 18.5%. The reduced LGS would reduce seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of the crops by shortening time-span for ET generation. Due to dominant yield reduction over ET reduction, the water use efficiency (WUE) for grain/tuber and biomass yields would decrease with the changing climate. The reduced crop yields are an indicative of a potential future risk of food security in Bangladesh. The results of this study can therefore guide to adopt coping mechanisms in the light of climate change to ensure future food security of the country.

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Section: Water Use Efficiencysupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Water Use Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT

Rahman

Mojid

Banu

2018

International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering

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“…The underlying assumptions for implementing the ARDL bound test were that all the variables must be integrated at the levels of I(0) or I(1) to allow for computation of F-statistics [ 19 , 22 ]. Therefore, unit root tests are normally carried out on the variables that are introduced to the model [ 39 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research on the impact of climate change on wheat growth and yield has been a hot topic in China [ 3 – 5 , 15 , 18 – 19 ]. In the field of natural science, there are two approaches to estimating the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural systems: Exploring the effects of long-term climate change/variability on the wheat yield (1) using crop simulation models [ 20 , 21 ] (e.g., CERES-Wheat, C-CAM, EPIC, and others) and climate change scenarios [ 7 , 16 , 22 ] and (2) using field experiments or artificial climate chamber experiments [ 23 ]. Crop simulation modeling is the most commonly used approach and is often used in combination with climate change scenarios and crop simulation models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: An autoregressive distributed lag approach

et al. 2017

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This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June) led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention.

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“…Latiri et al (2010) has proved that, after the yield increase in 1960s, the rate of yield increase has been slowing down, and wheat sensitivity to drought is one of the main limiting factors. Simulated with cropping systems simulation model, Jalota et al (2014) find that in mid and end century time slice of the 21st century, environment temperature and drought would increase, while yields of rice and wheat would decrease owing to shortening of crop duration. Many researchers indicate that improving water use efficiency (WUE) during grain development is one of the most important methods to solve this problem (Mei et al , 2013; Tallec et al , 2013; Wang et al , 2013; Zhang et al , 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimized Timing of Using Canopy Temperature to Select High-Yielding Cultivars of Winter Wheat Under Different Water Regimes

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2016

Ex. Agric.

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SUMMARYSelecting high-yielding cultivars under drought is an important practice to improve crop production. Canopy temperature (T) shows a relative reliable association with grain yield. In this study, we compared the suitability of canopy T and other agronomic as well as physiological traits associated with grain yield under different water regimes. Field experiments over two seasons (2011–2012 and 2012–2013) were carried out under three water regimes, represented about 64, 76 and 89% of potential evapotranspiration, with 16 local winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in each season. Results showed that cultivars with higher yield usually performed consistently lower canopy T under three water regimes, while the relationships of grain yield with other agronomic or physiological traits were more influenced by soil moisture. In addition, the relationship between canopy T and grain yield varied with different growth stages: From the time of heading to early grain filling stages, a more significant negative linear relationship (p < 0.001) existed under the three irrigation levels.

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Location specific climate change scenario and its impact on rice and wheat in Central Indian Punjab

Cited by 29 publications

References 27 publications

Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT

Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT

Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: An autoregressive distributed lag approach

Optimized Timing of Using Canopy Temperature to Select High-Yielding Cultivars of Winter Wheat Under Different Water Regimes

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