Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

Annaka, Tadashi; Satake, Kenji; Sakakiyama, Tsutomu; Yanagisawa, Ken; Shuto, Nobuo

doi:10.1007/s00024-006-0174-3

Cited by 144 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…In the first category, PTHA is conducted by using tsunami catalogs (Burroughs and Tebbens, 2005;Tinti et al, 2005;Orfanogiannaki and Papadopoulos, 2007); in the second category, different scenariobased PTHA methods are suggested (Geist and Dmowska, 1999;Downes and Stirling, 2001;Farreras et al, 2007;Liu et al, 2007;Power et al, 2007;Yanagisawa et al, 2007;Burbidge et al, 2008;González et al, 2009;Løvholt et al, 2012). In the third category, a combination of the two previous categories is considered (Geist, 2005;Geist and Parsons, 2006;Annaka et al, 2007;Thio et al, 2007;Burbidge et al, 2008;Parsons and Geist, 2008;Grezio et al, 2010Grezio et al, , 2012Horspool et al, 2014;Fukutani et al, 2016). Specifically, for near-source subduction zones, Fukutani et al (2016) extended the methodology of Annaka et al (2007) for a Tohoku-type (M9) earthquake with fixed rupture geometry.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the third category, a combination of the two previous categories is considered (Geist, 2005;Geist and Parsons, 2006;Annaka et al, 2007;Thio et al, 2007;Burbidge et al, 2008;Parsons and Geist, 2008;Grezio et al, 2010Grezio et al, , 2012Horspool et al, 2014;Fukutani et al, 2016). Specifically, for near-source subduction zones, Fukutani et al (2016) extended the methodology of Annaka et al (2007) for a Tohoku-type (M9) earthquake with fixed rupture geometry. They considered several cases for earthquake magnitude, slip pattern, and occurrence probability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic Earthquake–Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan

Risi

Goda

2016

Front. Built Environ.

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This study develops a novel simulation-based procedure for the estimation of the likelihood that seismic intensity (in terms of spectral acceleration) and tsunami inundation (in terms of wave height), at a particular location, will exceed given hazard levels. The procedure accounts for a common physical rupture process for shaking and tsunami. Numerous realizations of stochastic slip distributions of earthquakes having different magnitudes are generated using scaling relationships of source parameters for subduction zones and then using a stochastic synthesis method of earthquake slip distribution. Probabilistic characterization of earthquake and tsunami intensity parameters is carried out by evaluating spatially correlated strong motion intensity through the adoption of ground motion prediction equations as a function of magnitude and shortest distance from the rupture plane and by solving non-linear shallow water equations for tsunami wave propagation and inundation. The minimum number of simulations required to obtain stable estimates of seismic and tsunami intensity measures is investigated through a statistical bootstrap analysis. The main output of the proposed procedure is the earthquake-tsunami hazard curves representing, for each mean annual rate of occurrence, the corresponding seismic and inundation tsunami intensity measures. This simulation-based procedure facilitates the earthquake-tsunami hazard deaggregation with respect to magnitude and distance. Results are particularly useful for multi-hazard mapping purposes, and the developed framework can be further extended to probabilistic earthquake-tsunami risk assessment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Earthquake–Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan

Risi

Goda

2016

Front. Built Environ.

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“…Tsunami hazard assessment can be approached by both probabilistic (PTHA, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment) and deterministic methods. When PTHA is performed, it is often considered as an extension of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) (Annaka et al, 2007;Burbidge et al, 2008;González et al, 2009;Grezio et al, 2010;Sørensen et al, 2012;Power et al, 2012), obtaining seismic return periods for potential tsunamigenic earthquakes and incorporating the aleatory uncertainties on the fault and tidal level parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

Álvarez‐Gómez

Aniel-Quiroga

Gutiérrez

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differencesfinite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high-resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.

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“…Moreover, since they basically contain no bias, the uncertainty introduced by the approximations used can be propagated in a straightforward manner into the uncertainty associated to the final results, for example when defining the parameters of a log-normal distribution of the hazard impact metric, to be convolved with the probability density function (PDF) of representing different sources of aleatory uncertainty such as the natural variability of the earthquake source or the contribution of the tidal stage (see Annaka et al, 2007, andHorspool et al, 2014, for some examples).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The performance of this tool is analysed by quantifying its limits and errors in recovering an initial water displacement field and by assessing its usability in several different possible applications, such as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis, tsunami source inversions and tsunami warning systems: for example, by propagating the estimated uncertainty in the probability distribution of the tsunami forecast (e.g. Annaka et al, 2007;Horspool et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast evaluation of tsunami scenarios: uncertainty assessment for a Mediterranean Sea database

Molinari

Tonini

Lorito

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We present a database of pre-calculated tsunami waveforms for the entire Mediterranean Sea, obtained by numerical propagation of uniformly spaced Gaussian-shaped elementary sources for the sea level elevation. Based on any initial sea surface displacement, the database allows the fast calculation of full waveforms at the 50 m isobath offshore of coastal sites of interest by linear superposition. A computationally inexpensive procedure is set to estimate the coefficients for the linear superposition based on the potential energy of the initial elevation field. The elementary sources size and spacing is fine enough to satisfactorily reproduce the effects of M > = 6.0 earthquakes. Tsunami propagation is modelled by using the Tsunami-HySEA code, a GPU finite volume solver for the non-linear shallow water equations. Like other existing methods based on the initial sea level elevation, the database is independent on the faulting geometry and mechanism, which makes it applicable in any tectonic environment. We model a large set of synthetic tsunami test scenarios, selected to explore the uncertainty introduced when approximating tsunami waveforms and their maxima by fast and simplified linear combination. This is the first time to our knowledge that the uncertainty associated to such a procedure is systematically analysed and that relatively small earthquakes are considered, which may be relevant in the near-field of the source in a complex tectonic setting. We find that non-linearity of tsunami evolution affects the reconstruction of the waveforms and of their maxima by introducing an almost unbiased (centred at zero) error distribution of relatively modest extent. The uncertainty introduced by our approximation can be in principle propagated to forecast results. The resulting product then is suitable for different applications such as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis, tsunami source inversions and tsunami warning systems.

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Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

Cited by 144 publications

References 19 publications

Probabilistic Earthquake–Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan

Probabilistic Earthquake–Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

Fast evaluation of tsunami scenarios: uncertainty assessment for a Mediterranean Sea database

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