Long-Term Electricity Scenarios for the MENA Region: Assessing the Preferences of Local Stakeholders Using Multi-Criteria Analyses

Abstract

In recent years, most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, have rolled out national policies with the goal of decarbonising their economies. Energy policy goals in these countries have been characterised by expanding the deployment of renewable energy technologies in the electricity mix in the medium term (i.e., until 2030). This tacitly signals a transformation of socio-technical systems by 2030 and beyond. Nevertheless, how these policy objectives actually translate into future scenarios that can also take into account a long-term perspective up to 2050 and correspond to local preferences remains largely understudied. This paper aims to fill this gap by identifying the most widely preferred long-term electricity scenarios for Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. During a series of two-day workshops (one in each country), the research team, along with local stakeholders, adopted a participatory approach to develop multiple 2050 electricity scenarios, which enabled electricity pathways to be modelled using Renewable Energy Pathway Simulation System GIS (renpassG!S). We subsequently used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to capture local preferences. The empirical findings show that local stakeholders in all three countries preferred electricity scenarios mainly or even exclusively based on renewables. The findings demonstrate a clear preference for renewable energies and show that useful insights can be generated using participatory approaches to energy planning.

Sustainability assessment of a novel micro solar thermal: Biomass heat and power plant in Morocco

“…Increased use of renewables in its energy network and the introduction of energy efficiency strategies as a national priority can help enable Morocco establish a diversified and sustainable energy network (Choukri, Naddami, & Hayani, 2017). Some advances are being made in the medium term, for instance, the power sector is set to undergo the most important change in the energy plans of the country until 2030 (Zelt, Krüger, Blohm, Bohm, & Far, 2019). This is reflected in the Moroccan Solar Plan (Noor), which is included in the goals of National Energy Strategy of 2009 and the updated version of 2015 (Wei, Patadia, & Kammen, 2010).…”

Analysis of Cost-Optimal Renewable Energy Expansion for the Near-Term Jordanian Electricity System

“…The lower peak demand development path assumes a much lower demand of 15.8 TWh. Earlier studies examining potential future energy systems for Jordan, such as [14], expected an electricity demand of 106 TWh in 2050. This is due to the demand development between 2007 and 2013, showing a steady growth of electricity loads with an actual increase in consumption of 6.8% on average per year in the mentioned time period [8,12,15].…”

“…Within the MENA-Select (Sustainable Electricity Trajectories) project, participatory scenarios for the future Jordanian energy system for 2050 were established with local stakeholders [14]. In the other participating countries, Tunesia and Morocco, 100% renewable energy scenarios were considered and investigated; however, Jordanian stakeholders did not explore this possibility.…”

“…Therefore lower bounds on the investment of units were set; all costs and technical parameters were the same as in the BASE scenario. For all scenario setups, different shares of RE are modelled with Equation (14). Table 2 summarises the cost and technology assumptions for all scenarios.…”

A Science-Policy Framework for a Green Economic Recovery After the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…This was evaluated by workshop participants among the least preferable options, although the authors' expert judgement considered this a high-ranking measure. Such discrepancies are not surprising; it has been recognised in the literature that heterogeneity of stakeholders results in preferences which diverge from those of experts19 .Even when they contradict modelling results and expert opinions, these views need to be taken seriously, considering the direct experience of stakeholders and decision-makers: some measures may have lower social acceptance than experts believe, and may require more in-depth work to take intoaccount stakeholders' concerns -for example, by considering more carefully the risks of some measures to social equity and through proper information and communication campaigns to target audiences and the broader public.At the same time, it is interesting that a seemingly unpopular measure (carbon taxation, even if framed as fiscally neutral) received the top score among recovery measures. In view of the extensive discussions about the social acceptance of such pricing schemes worldwide20,21 , this seems to be a surprising but also encouraging result, as carbon pricing is widely considered by economists as a necessary ingredient of effective decarbonisation policies.…”