Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling

Fortes, Patrícia; Alvarenga, Antônio de Pádua; Seixas, Júlia; Rodrigues, Sofia Suely Ferreira Brandão

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.006

Cited by 120 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Cagnin et al 2013;Duan et al 2014;Kajikawa et al 2008;Meade and Islam 2015), scenarios on their role in possible future energy systems (cf. Fortes et al 2015;IEA 2014;Schaeffer et al 2015;WWF and Ecofys 2011) and the policy implications they entail (Eom et al 2015;Gouvea et al 2013;Johnson et al 2015;Riahi et al 2013;Schwanitz et al 2015). Yet these studies focus more on promoting renewables through policy instruments, their potential and efficiency, or the challenges associated with their market and system integration, largely ignoring any international or geopolitical aspects.…”

Section: Theories On Geopolitics and Renewablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems

Scholten

Bosman

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

153

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Section: Theories On Geopolitics and Renewablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems

Scholten

Bosman

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

153

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“…For these reasons, it would be intriguing, firstly, to explore whether the conclusions from the alternative lines of research match and which aspects have possibly led to conflicting conclusions (cf. Fortes et al 2015). With this approach, modelling could reveal insights and connections that would remain unnoticed by using descriptive approaches only, and vice versa.…”

Section: Implications For Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Hurmekoski¹

2016

Diss. For.

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The aim of the study is to examine the factors affecting the market potential of wood construction in Europe towards 2030. The study takes three complementary perspectives: Past trends and current structures, future trends and uncertainties and measures required to meet the long-term targets of the industries.The methodological framework builds on combining quantitative, descriptive and participative research approaches. By adopting methods and approaches from the field of foresight, the study aims to contribute also to the methodology development for long-term forest sector outlook studies.The trends and pressures in the operating environment of construction were found to primarily relate to the need for reducing the environmental impact of construction and improving the quality and productivity of construction. However, few of the trends would appear to have decisive impact on the diffusion of wood construction. That is, the positive drivers might not translate into improved competitive advantage for wood construction to the extent often expected, due to the lack of willingness or ability to pay for the attributes exceeding the requirements posed by the building regulations. Instead, the cultural and structural hindrances culminating to the fragmented structure and risk-averse characteristics of the construction and wood products industries seem to create significant inertia for the diffusion of wood construction.Based on scenario analysis, the outlook would appear to be dependent on the possible regulatory push for green building and on the possible changes in the strategic orientations of the industries. However, the empirical part indicated that the short-term strategy and policy measures suggested by experts are regarded either as unlikely or as unattractive by the industry stakeholders. The results therefore suggest that the diffusion of wood construction in Europe is likely to be a gradual process, subject to significant inertia, and restricted to a few niche sub-sectors and regions towards 2030.

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“…To apply a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning in Taiwan, Chen et al (2009) constructed three scenarios (''Season in the Sun,'' ''More Desire than Energy,'' and ''Castle in the Air'') that encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Analysis of other long-term trends such as energy security, economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts, and social change has also been considered by scenario planners (Renn 2003;Guerra et al 2014;Jiang and Hu 2006;Jewell et al 2014;Bilgin 2011;Criqui and Mima 2012;Grave et al 2012;Weldegiorgis and Franks 2014;Fortes et al 2014;Tanatvanit and Limmeechokchai 2003).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The development of scenarios to explore RE and low carbon futures has been widely applied (Fortes et al 2014), as policy makers seek to investigate and probe all the possible future of expanding RE deployment. A scenario technique for development of small-scale deep geothermal power in Germany has been carried out by Purkus and Barth (2011).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Iran’s energy scenarios on a 20-year vision

Chaharsooghi

Rezaei

Alipour

2015

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

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With the heightened awareness of global environmental issues of greenhouse gas emissions by fossil fuels as non-renewable energy resources, the application of renewable energies (REs) has emerged as one of the most significant policies in most of the countries throughout the world. Although Iran is blessed with high potential of RE resources such as solar, wind, and geothermal, development of such resources, however, has been neglected due to the various reasons. Considering the long time needed to develop and deploy RE resources, a long-term planning is required in this area. Therefore, applying the scenario planning method, this research develops four scenarios in Iran's 2025 vision, through a combination of the changes in energy consumption and RE generation: green path, standardization, fossil energy, and non-targeted subsidy. Developed scenarios are then compared with the government plan for utilizing REs in 10 % of total electric power generation in a 20-year vision. Results indicate that standardization and fossil energy are the most probable scenarios. Green path is the most optimistic scenario for the country, suggesting the goal of producing 10 % of total electricity share through REs could be achievable by 2025. And the non-targeted subsidy is the most pessimistic and unexpected scenario for the country.

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Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling

Cited by 120 publications

References 29 publications

The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems

The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Iran’s energy scenarios on a 20-year vision

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