Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing - Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework

Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Eickhout, B.; Lucas, Paul L.; Elzen, M.G.J. den

doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-volsi2006-nosi3-10

Cited by 126 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…First of all, ''stabilization'' profiles are by far the most commonly studied profiles for CO 2 concentrations (see, for example, refs. 18 and 19-21) and, more recently, CO 2 -equivalent concentrations (14,15,17,22,23).…”

Section: Concentration Profiles: Peaking Versus Stabilizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs

Elzen

Vuuren

2007

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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How can dangerous interference with the climate system be avoided? Science can help decision-makers answer this political question. Earlier publications have focused on the probability of keeping global mean temperature change below certain thresholds by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at particular levels. We compare the results of such ''stabilization profiles'' with a set of ''peaking profiles'' that reduce emissions further after stabilization and thus result in a concentration peak. Given the inertia in the climate system, stabilization profiles lead to ongoing warming beyond 2100 until the temperature reaches equilibrium. This warming partly can be prevented for peaking profiles. In this way, these profiles can increase the likelihood of achieving temperature thresholds by 10 -20% compared with the likelihood for the associated stabilization profiles. Because the additional mitigation efforts and thus costs for peaking profiles lie mainly beyond 2100, peaking profiles achieving temperature thresholds with the same likelihood as the original stabilization profile, but at considerably lower cost (up to 40%), can be identified. The magnitude of the cost reductions depends on the assumptions on discounting. Peaking profiles and overshoot profiles with a limited overshoot may, in particular, play an important role in making more ambitious climate targets feasible. abatement costs ͉ concentration stabilization ͉ climate change ͉ integrated assessment model ͉ multigas emission pathway

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Section: Concentration Profiles: Peaking Versus Stabilizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs

Elzen

Vuuren

2007

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…It includes various assessments of economic and energy sector impacts of multi-gas mitigation strategies. Drawing on a range of different IA models (for example, Aaheim et al, 2006, Jakeman and Fisher 2006, van Vuuren et al 2006, Kemfert et al 2006) 10 , EMF 21 includes but is not restricted to methane mitigation measures. A general result is that including non-CO 2 GHG like CH 4 and N 2 O results in substantially lower mitigation cost compared to restricting GHG mitigation to CO 2 .…”

Section: Different Approaches For B/c Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigation of Methane Emissions: A Rapid and Cost-Effective Response to Climate Change

Kemfert

Schill

2009

SSRN Journal

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“…Total factor productivity is assumed to grow exogenously over time to reflect technological progress and all the other structural changes that are difficult to represent in a simplified Ramsey-type growth framework, especially in the case of developing countries. The exponential trend is calibrated to fit the output projection underlying the Common POLES IMAGE (CPI) baseline (van Vuuren et al 2005). 19 We calibrate endogenous international extraction cost functions for coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium ore. 10 We add two different mark-ups: the first is for differentiating between fuels used for electricity generation and fuels used for direct consumption, the second is for explaining The cost of uranium ore extraction in 2002 is set at 19 USD per Kg.…”

Section: Department Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

The WITCH Model: Structure, Baseline, Solutions

2007

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The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions Summary WITCH -World Induced Technical Change Hybrid -is a regionally disaggregated hard-link hybrid global model with a neoclassical optimal growth structure (top-down) and a detailed energy input component (bottom-up). The model endogenously accounts for technological change, both through learning curves that affect the prices of new vintages of capital and through R&D investments. The model features the main economic and environmental policies in each world region as the outcome of a dynamic game. WITCH belongs to the class of Integrated Assessment Models as it possesses a climate module that feeds climate changes back into the economy. Although the model's main features are discussed elsewhere (Bosetti et al., 2006), here we provide a more thorough discussion of the model's structure and baseline projections, to describe the model in greater detail. We report detailed information on the evolution of energy demand, technology and CO2 emissions. We also explain the procedure used to calibrate the model parameters. This report is therefore meant to provide effective support to those who intending to use the WITCH model or interpret its results.

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Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing - Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework

Abstract: This paper presents a set of multi-gas mitigation scenarios that aim for

Cited by 126 publications

References 28 publications

Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs

Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs

Mitigation of Methane Emissions: A Rapid and Cost-Effective Response to Climate Change

The WITCH Model: Structure, Baseline, Solutions

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