Long-Term Prognostic Validity of Talent Selections: Comparing National and Regional Coaches, Laypersons and Novices

Abstract

In most sports, the development of elite athletes is a long-term process of talent identification and support. Typically, talent selection systems administer a multi-faceted strategy including national coach observations and varying physical and psychological tests when deciding who is chosen for talent development. The aim of this exploratory study was to evaluate the prognostic validity of talent selections by varying groups 10 years after they had been conducted. This study used a unique, multi-phased approach. Phase 1 involved players (n = 68) in 2001 completing a battery of general and sport-specific tests of handball ‘talent’ and performance. In Phase 2, national and regional coaches (n = 7) in 2001 who attended training camps identified the most talented players. In Phase 3, current novice and advanced handball players (n = 12 in each group) selected the most talented from short videos of matches played during the talent camp. Analyses compared predictions among all groups with a best model-fit derived from the motor tests. Results revealed little difference between regional and national coaches in the prediction of future performance and little difference in forecasting performance between novices and players. The best model-fit regression by the motor-tests outperformed all predictions. While several limitations are discussed, this study is a useful starting point for future investigations considering athlete selection decisions in talent identification in sport.

Challenges and [Possible] Solutions to Optimizing Talent Identification and Development in Sport

“…Organizations' talent identification decisions are often informed by recommendations (e.g., from coaches and teachers), and/or subjective (e.g., training/competition observations) and objective (e.g., fitness tests) assessments conducted within youth annual age groups (i.e., Under 15 s; Schorer et al, 2017;Till et al, 2019). Furthermore, the personnel involved in talent identification can range from sport scientists implementing objective assessments, to scouts and coaches watching competition providing subjective evaluations of potential and performance.…”

“…Whilst these studies provide multidimensional measures of talent, the utilization of practitioners' subjective evaluations has been limited. Based on recent studies (e.g., Schorer et al, 2017;Towlson et al, 2019) this work is emerging, but lacks longitudinal designs. To be fair, applying multidisciplinary research designs are challenging and collecting appropriate information on the complex psycho-social factors, technical skills and tactical knowledge involved with sport performance across development is a challenge for all involved in talent identification.…”

Waste Reduction Strategies: Factors Affecting Talent Wastage and the Efficacy of Talent Selection in Sport

“…Arguably, one of the most fundamental issues affecting the accuracy of talent predictions is the limited understanding about the phenomenon itself. In forecasting situations, decisions are made based on the availability of information and the combined assumptions about how that information relates to future performance (Schorer et al, 2017). Although seemingly straightforward, what information is deemed "important" and how that information relates to future talent remains relatively unknown.…”

“…In an effort to predict and select the next athletic superstar, substantial resources (e.g., time, money, and energy) are invested with the hope of gaining an edge over the competition. Although there is some evidence to show improvements in the identification and selection of athletes (Tetlock, 2016), research suggests that accuracy rates for predicting athlete potential remain quite low (Abbott and Collins, 2004;Vaeyens et al, 2008;Koz et al, 2012;Schorer et al, 2017;Johnston et al, 2018).…”

“…The talent selection process typically takes place early in an athlete's life and involves administrative personnel (such as a coach, scout, or talent identifier 1 ), who are tasked with identifying and predicting future athletic success. Often a series of tests (primarily focused on the physical or physiological attributes of an athlete) combined with coach observations (Christensen, 2009;Schorer et al, 2017) are used to assess performance (Lidor et al, 2009). Following this assessment period, talent selectors make decisions regarding which athletes should be included (selected) or excluded (de-selected) from the team.…”