Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004–2013

Abstract

Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations\ud is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and\ud operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment\ud of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from\ud days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this\ud direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical,\ud biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent,\ud associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes.\ud In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth’s emitted\ud radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its\ud possible correlation with M C 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in\ud between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data\ud analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies\ud (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to\ud identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years\ud (2004–2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced\ud Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation\ud satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for\ud justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and\ud earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the\ud ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability—\ud CSEP—Project) have been defined to drive a\ud retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that\ud more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space–\ud time window around (M C 4) earthquake’s time and location of\ud occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error\ud diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable\ud by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to\ud frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds\ud over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of\ud false positives registered on a so long testing period, seems already\ud sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST\ud approach and RETIRA index) among the parameters to be considered\ud in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to t-DASH

A Statistical Analysis of TIR Anomalies extracted by RST in Relation with Earthquake in Sichuan Area with Use of MODIS LST Data

“…The RST approach is based on a multi-temporal analysis of historical data set of satellite observations acquired in similar observational conditions (Eleftheriou, Filizzola et al, 2016). Because surface environment is relatively constant, the location of high temperature and low temperature is also relatively steady.…”

“… To build cloud-mask with use of Cloud Mask data (MYD35L2). In order to be sure that only cloud-free radiances contribute to the computation of reference fields, not only those 20 pixels but also the 24 ones in a 5 × 5 box around it (very often belonging cloud edges) have been excluded by the following computations of reference fields (Eleftheriou, Filizzola et al, 2016).…”

“…Tramutoli et al studied the earthquakes with M>4.0 in Italy from July 2012 to June 2013 and the testing area was Italian southern Apennines, Po Plain, they found that the false positive rate was lesser than 33% while the missing rate is up to 67% . Eleftheriou et al studied the earthquakes occurred in Greece 5 in period 2004Greece 5 in period -2013 with use of TIR images acquired by MSG/SEVIRI, more than 93% of all identified TIR anomalies occurred in the prefixed space-time window around time and location of occurrence of earthquakes (with M>4) and the overall false positive rate is <7% (Eleftheriou, Filizzola et al, 2016). It seems that RST is an effect method to extract TIR anomalies before earthquakes, but there is no such study for the mainland of China 10 However, some researchers have proved that some single earthquake results are unreliable.…”

“…But, more than 10 years (since 2001) of application of the 5 general Robust Satellite Techniques (Tramutoli, 1998, Valerio, 2005, Tramutoli, 2007 methodology to this issue, have shown the ability of this approach to discriminate anomalous TIR signals possibly associated with seismic activity from normal fluctuations of Earth's thermal emission related to other causes(e.g., meteorological) independent of the earthquake occurrences (Eleftheriou, Filizzola et al, 2016). RST is based on the Robust AVHRR techniques (RAT), which is proposed for 10 environmental monitoring with the use of NOAA/AVHRR observations (Tramutoli, 1998).…”

Current Challenges in Statistical Seismology

“…Seismicity-based probability forecasting of seismicity and seismic hazard evaluation Articles in this category focus on developing statistical models and methods for earthquake forecasts. YU et al ELEFTHERIOU et al (2016) andCHEN et al (2016a) evaluate the precursory information in the thermal infra-red spectrum emitted by the Earth and in the observation of mobile gravity fields, respectively.…”