Long-term trajectories of human civilization

Baum, Seth D.; Armstrong, Stuart; Ekenstedt, Timoteus; Häggström, Olle; Hanson, Robin; Kuhlemann, Karin; Maas, Matthijs M.; Miller, James D.; Salmela, Markus; Sandberg, Anders; Sotala, Kaj; Torres, Phil; Turchin, Alexey; Yampolskiy, Roman V.

doi:10.1108/fs-04-2018-0037

Cited by 57 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…For example, the time horizon of 2045 has been given for ‘high‐level machine intelligence’ (Grace et al, ), and 2100 for climate change (Steffen et al, ). Security policy has difficulty with such timeframes; yet seen relative to the duration of human civilization (~10,000 years), or homo sapiens (~200,000 years), such time horizons seem more or less ‘immediate’ (Baum et al, ). Thus, anthropogenic existential threats challenge the ‘short termism’ of security policy (Fisher, ), and support the premise that existential security requires an intergenerational timeframe (Rees, ).…”

Section: Existential Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity

Sears

2020

Global Policy

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Humankind faces a growing spectrum of anthropogenic existential threats to human civilization and survival. This article therefore aims to develop a new framework for security policy -'existential security'that puts the survival of humanity at its core. It begins with a discussion of the definition and spectrum of 'anthropogenic existential threats', or those threats that have their origins in human agency and could cause, minimally, civilizational collapse, or maximally, human extinction. It argues that anthropogenic existential threats should be conceptualized as a matter of 'security', which follows a logic of protection from threats to the survival of some referent object. However, the existing frameworks for security policy -'human security' and 'national security'have serious limitations for addressing anthropogenic existential threats; application of the 'national security' frame could even exacerbate existential threats to humanity. Thus, the existential security frame is developed as an alternative for security policy, which takes 'humankind' as its referent object against anthropogenic existential threats to human civilization and survival. Policy Implications• 'Anthropogenic existential threats' refer to a class of threats that have their origins in human agency and could bring about, at the minimum, the collapse of civilization, or, at the maximum, human extinction. The spectrum of anthropogenic existential threats is broad and growing.

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Section: Existential Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“… For conceptual discussions of humankind’s potential trajectories, including the possibilities of civilizational ‘collapse’ or human extinction, see Bostrom (); Baum et al (); and Cascio (). …”

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confidence: 99%

Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity

Sears

2020

Global Policy

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“…Below we sketch out four long-term scenarios (Table 31.1). The inspiration for these came largely from the scenarios of Baum et al (2019) and post-lunch discussions at the wine farm Lovane (close to Stellenbosch). However, they undoubtedly also arose from nascent ideas buried deep in our memories of concepts more eloquently expressed by other authors.…”

Section: The Long-term: What Will Invasions Look Like 200-2000 Years mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…on what the "end-points" might be), and work back through time. Our approach was inspired by a recent exercise that considered potential futures for human civilisation and identified four basic trajectories: civilisation could conquer space; technological transformations could be such that what we now recognise as 'human' would no longer be relevant; civilisation could continue to develop, but with no transformative changes (status quo); or there could be a catastrophic end (Baum et al 2019). These trajectories form the basis for evaluating the consequences of actions taken now.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Futures of Biological Invasions in South Africa

Wilson

Measey

Richardson

et al. 2020

Biological Invasions in South Africa

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Biological invasions are having a moderately negative impact on human livelihoods and the environment in South Africa, but the situation is worsening. Predicting future trends is fraught with many assumptions, so this chapter takes an outcome-orientated approach. We start by envisaging four scenarios for how biological invasions might look like 200-2000 years from now: (1) "Collapse of Civilisation, but no return to Eden", there is no advanced human civilisation left on Earth and current biological invasions play out in full; (2) "New Pangea", a combination of the unregulated and rapid movement of species around the world and other global change drivers leads to the biotic homogenisation of areas that were previously distinct biogeographic regions such that the concept of biological invasions no longer has meaning; (3) "Preserve or Use", while parts of the Earth continue to be utilised, some areas are actively managed and native biodiversity and biogeographic distributions are maintained; and (4) "Conservation Earth", a highly advanced civilisation restores the Earth to a state prior to the human-mediated movement of organisms (i.e. biological invasions are reversed). Based on various horizon-scanning exercises and our own deliberations, we discuss how technological, socio-political, trade, global change, and ecological

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“…The largest long-term factor is whether future generations would colonize space and benefit from its astronomically large amount of resources (Tonn, 1999). However, it is not presently known which asteroid collisions or nuclear wars (if any) would cause the permanent collapse of human civilization and thus the loss of the large future benefits (Baum et al, 2019). Given the enormous stakes, prudent risk management would aim for very low probabilities of permanent collapse (Tonn, 2009).…”

Section: Severity Of Asteroid Collision and Violent Nuclear Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk–Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

Baum¹

2019

Risk Analysis

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To prevent catastrophic asteroid–Earth collisions, it has been proposed to use nuclear explosives to deflect away earthbound asteroids. However, this policy of nuclear deflection could inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war and other violent conflict. This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precise conclusion on the overall risk–risk tradeoff. The value of this article comes less from specific quantitative conclusions and more from providing an analytical framework and a better overall understanding of the policy decision. The article demonstrates the importance of integrated analysis of global risks and the policies to address them, as well as the challenge of quantitative evaluation of complex social processes such as violent conflict.

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Long-term trajectories of human civilization

Cited by 57 publications

References 90 publications

Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity

Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity

Potential Futures of Biological Invasions in South Africa

Risk–Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

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