1999
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.96.10.5565
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Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: A response to global warming?

Abstract: In regions with severe winters, global warming may be expected to cause earlier onset of breeding in most animals, yet no documentation of such a trend exists in North America. In a study of marked individuals of the Mexican jay (Aphelocoma ultramarina) in southeastern Arizona, from 1971 to 1998, the mean Julian date of first clutch in the population declined significantly by 10.1 days. The date of the first nest in the population also became earlier, by 10.8 days. These changes were associated with significan… Show more

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Cited by 213 publications
(142 citation statements)
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“…It is well established that global warming is having adverse effects on living organisms (Thomas et al, 2004). Some of these effects occur through changes in the timing of seasonal processes (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003), such as reproduction (Brown et al, 1999;Winkler et al, 2002). Global climate change does not affect photoperiod, the ubiquitous initial predictive cue used by high-latitude species, but does affect temperature and rainfall patterns.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…It is well established that global warming is having adverse effects on living organisms (Thomas et al, 2004). Some of these effects occur through changes in the timing of seasonal processes (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003), such as reproduction (Brown et al, 1999;Winkler et al, 2002). Global climate change does not affect photoperiod, the ubiquitous initial predictive cue used by high-latitude species, but does affect temperature and rainfall patterns.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Many potential examples of rapid change in phenotype related to climate have been reported recently (e.g. Winkel & Hudde, 1997;Brown et al, 1999;Crick et al, 1999;Dunn & Winkler, 1999;Saether et al, 2000;Moss et al, 2001). However, it remains unclear whether these changes are phenotypic or micro-evolutionary in nature.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In birds, climate change may influence demographic rates directly (Saether et al 2000;Sillett et al 2000), but more commonly it is linked to range shifts (Parmesan & Yohe 2003) or changes in breeding phenology. For instance, variation in climate change between wintering and nesting grounds may adversely affect arrival times in migratory birds (Forchhammer et al 1998;Brown et al 1999;Crick & Sparks 1999;Dunn & Winkler 1999), or the response of a non-migratory bird population may not match that of its prey (Visser et al 1998). A mismatch may also occur when patterns of regional climatic change differ between the egg-laying and hatching season, i.e.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%