Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines

Villafuerte, Marcelino Q.; Matsumoto, Jun; Akasaka, Ikumi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.; Kubota, Hisayuki; Cinco, Thelma A.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.09.021

Cited by 82 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The seasonal and spatial variability in the Philippine climate is mainly driven by rainfall, which is influenced by both local processes and large-scale systems, e.g., the northeast and southwest monsoons, tropical cyclones, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Cruz et al 2013;Villafuerte et al 2014). In JJA, the southwest monsoon brings abundant rainfall over the western coast, particularly over northwest Luzon, while the rest of the country receive at least 5 mm day −1 (Figs.…”

Section: B Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Sensitivity of the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model to Boundary Conditions and Convective Schemes over the Philippines

Cruz

Sasaki

Narisma

2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Regional climate models have been useful in climate studies and in downscaling climate projections from global climate models, especially for areas characterized by complex topography and coastline features, such as the Philippines. However, several factors may affect model skill, such as uncertainties related to the boundary conditions and model configuration. This study evaluates the performance of the non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) over the Philippines. Present-day climate simulations at 50 km resolution are conducted using two sets of boundary conditions (ECMWF ERA-Interim and the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project NNRP1), as well as two convective parameterization schemes in the model (Grell and Kain-Fritsch). Results show that the seasonal changes in the spatial distribution of temperature, rainfall, and winds over the Philippines are simulated reasonably well. NHRCM has an overall cold and dry bias over land, the degree of which depends on the boundary condition and the convective scheme used. After adjusting the simulated temperature because of the difference in topography, the temperature differs from that observed by −0.90°C to −0.42°C on average. The rainfall bias in NHRCM ranges from −62.13 % to −25.20 %. Regardless of the boundary condition, the Grell scheme results in the lowest temperature bias with high skill scores, while the Kain-Fritsch scheme gives the lowest rainfall bias with high correlation and skill scores. The boundary conditions also influence model skill, such that the model bias is lower for temperature when ERA-Interim is used, but lower for rainfall with NNRP1. NHRCM represents the seasonal cycles of temperature and rainfall for all regions, but tends to generate more occurrences of cold and dry months. Improvements in the model are still possible, but these results indicate the potential of the model to be used for providing essential information for describing historical and future changes in the Philippine climate.

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Section: B Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Sensitivity of the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model to Boundary Conditions and Convective Schemes over the Philippines

Cruz

Sasaki

Narisma

2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…Recently, we collected Philippine rainfall data from the late nineteenth century (Chowdary et al 2012;Villafuerte et al 2014) and found that the northwestern Philippine station rainfall has been strongly correlated with the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern for more than 100 years (Kubota et al 2016). The PJ pattern is a dominant teleconnection of interannual variability in the WNP monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon (Nitta 1987) and is correlated to the preceding boreal winter ENSO (Chang et al 2000a, b;Wang et al 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclone influence on the long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset

Kubota

Shirooka

Matsumoto

et al. 2017

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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The long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset from 1903 to 2013 was investigated. The onset date is defined by daily rainfall data at eight stations in the northwestern Philippines. Summer monsoons tended to start earlier in May after the mid-1990s. Other early onset periods were found during the 1900s, 1920s, and 1930s, and an interdecadal variability of summer monsoon onset was identified. Independent surface wind data observed by ships in the South China Sea (SCS) revealed prevailing westerly wind in May during the early monsoon onset period. To identify atmospheric structures that trigger Philippine summer monsoon onset, we focused on the year 2013, conducting intensive upper-air observations. Tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi traveled northward in the Philippine Sea (PS) in 2013 and triggered the Philippine monsoon onset by intensifying moist low-level southwesterly wind in the southwestern Philippines and intensifying low-level southerly wind after the monsoon onset in the northwestern Philippines. The influence of TC was analyzed by the probability of the existence of TC in the PS and the SCS since 1951, which was found to be significantly correlated with the Philippine summer monsoon onset date. After the mid-1990s, early monsoon onset was influenced by active TC formation in the PS and the SCS. However, the role of TC activity decreased during the late summer monsoon periods. In general, it was found that TC activity in the PS and the SCS plays a key role in initiating Philippine summer monsoon onset.

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“…In fact, there is less evidence supporting the hypothesis of a rainfall regime change in its different expressions than to the contrary. Similarly, Villafuerte et al (2014) [14] find that extreme rains in the Philippines exhibit spatially incoherent behavior, with mixed positive and negative trends even among neighboring weather stations. Also, assessing temporal variability of rainfall in the Upper Tennessee Valley, Jones et al (2015) [38] concluded that only 11% of the 78 sub-basins experienced statistically significant increasing or decreasing precipitation over a 50-year period.…”

Section: Trend Change Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recognizing the importance of rainfall intensity in both productive and environmental terms [14], and given the lack of specific data that can be applied to evaluate it directly and establish its long-term variability, two indicators are used as substitutes: INT and AMDR. The variability of INT and AMDR annual values at meteorological stations in the central territory of Argentina is shown in Figure 2 for the period between 1960 and 2012.…”

Section: Rainfall Intensity In the Central Region Of Argentinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the Intensity and Variability of Precipitation in the Central Region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012

Casa

Ovando

Nasello

2018

Climate

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This study analyzes the temporal variation of different rainfall features in the central region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012, and evaluates the dynamics of temporal trends by using the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers (MKS) and Tomé-Miranda (TM) procedures. Under different criteria and levels of significance, rainfall time series show homogeneous behavior in more than 80% of cases. Only 18 of the 42 annual cases analyzed reached a significant long-term trend (p < 0.10). Total annual rainfall (AR) showed a significant increase only in Laboulaye Aero (LB) and Villa Dolores Aero (VD), but this does not currently persist. A decrease in the annual frequency of rainy days (DPF) is more widespread in the region. Thus, the increase in mean annual rainfall intensity (INT) seems to be particularly associated with the decrease in annual frequency of events (DPF) in the central region of Argentina. However, the increase in INT currently persists only at the Córdoba Observatorio (BO), as INT stopped growing for LB, Río Cuarto Aero (RC), and VD in the mid-1990s. The variation coefficients of total annual rainfall (ARCV) and DPF (DPFCV) have increased in the region, but with the former restricted locally to the Pilar Observatorio (PI), RC, and VM, and the latter to BO and RC. Long-term changes of the pluvial regime in the central region of Argentina appear to be not only local and restricted to some properties of rainfall during the period, but also reveal a particular dynamic where the long-term trends of the evaluated properties have now changed sign or maintain a certain constancy at present.

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Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines

Cited by 82 publications

References 36 publications

Assessing the Sensitivity of the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model to Boundary Conditions and Convective Schemes over the Philippines

Assessing the Sensitivity of the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model to Boundary Conditions and Convective Schemes over the Philippines

Tropical cyclone influence on the long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset

Changes in the Intensity and Variability of Precipitation in the Central Region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012

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