Long-term trends in maximum, minimum and mean annual air temperatures across the Northwestern Himalaya during the twentieth century

Bhutiyani, Mahendra R.; Kale, Vivek; Pawar, N. J.

doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9196-1

Cited by 506 publications

(263 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…The result highlights a moderate but long and important coupling between NH warming and TP temperature in the period 1901-1960 ( Figure 4A). This outcome is supported by a previous study performed by Bhutiyani et al (2007) indicating, for the 20th century, similar epochs of temperature variation between global and northwestern Himalayas. Nowadays, although a coupling in the northwestern area of the TP appears clearly and with certain persistence and it can be related to global warming, at the same time, on the rest of southeastern region across the Pyramid AWS, the unvarying TP temperature with NH warming is an unexpected and hard-to-figure behaviour (Figure 4).…”

Section: Warming Trendssupporting

confidence: 89%

How do Himalayan areas respond to global warming?

Diodato¹,

Bellocchi

Tartari

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:We study the interdecadal-scale variability over the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau (H/TP) to deepen the understanding of Earth's important ecosystem after the recent controversy about glaciers melting in the Himalayan Mountains. We present a new statistical reconstruction of annual temperature variability back to 1901 for the Pyramid Automated Weather Station of the Ev-K2-CNR Committee, located at the base of the Mount Everest. Our reconstruction using recorded weather station data compared with the Climate Research Unit temperature pattern data indicate that in recent decades the warming trend over the H/TP has been faster than during any equivalent period in the last century. Positive temperature anomalies (mostly observed after 1970) were found to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation indices, but unevenly correlated with the Northern Hemisphere (NH) land-surface temperature. Such decoupled response between H/TP and NH suggests the mechanisms of global warming are only marginally influencing the H/TP climate.

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Section: Warming Trendssupporting

confidence: 89%

How do Himalayan areas respond to global warming?

Diodato¹,

Bellocchi

Tartari

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Analysis of the Mekong River showed that an average flood most likely decreased though there was an increase in the likelihood of extreme floods during the second half of the 20th century 41 . Bhutiyani et al 42,43 reported increasing/decreasing trends over the last 40 years in four river basins of the northwestern Himalaya.…”

Section: Observed Changes In High Flows In Riversmentioning

confidence: 97%

Trends in Rainfall and Peak Flows for some River Basins in India

Jain¹,

Nayak²,

Singh³

et al. 2017

Current Science

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The aim of the present study is to examine the trends in magnitude and intensity of precipitation and peak floods of different magnitudes for seven major river basins in India. Data pertaining to daily flows for about 30-odd years and precipitation for 61 years (from 1951 to 2012) were analysed. Linear trends were calculated for the number of rainy days, rainfall intensity and occurrence of flood peaks for all basins. Using the Sen's slope estimator, it was found that annual peak rainfall increases for most of the basins in India. From the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope, it was found that the Cauvery and Brahamani and Baitarani basins show a rising trend in the number of rainy days, but the trend was falling for five other basins. When the basins were classified as mountains and plains, it was found that the number of daily rainfall events of different magnitudes was more in the mountains compared to the plains. The rivers which flow from west to east direction have more rainy days compared to those which flow towards the west. It was observed that in general the number of rainy days was falling while the number of intense events was increasing. The number of flood peaks of smaller magnitude in different decades showed slight falling trend. It was also found that there was falling or no trend for severe floods. Anthropogenic activities (construction of storage reservoirs, diversions, urbanization, land-use change, and soil and water conservation measures, etc.) have probably affected the generation of peak floods in the rivers of India. River regulation through storage reservoirs in the past 50 years has resulted in the reduction of peak flows. Hence with the same rainfall, the flood peaks would have increased under virgin conditions. Keywords: Flood peaks, rainfall trends, river basins.PRECIPITATION is a key component of the earth's hydrologic cycle, but it is also one of the most difficult hydrometeorological variables to measure and model accurately. Precipitation at a place is determined by large-scale as well as local processes, and therefore exhibits pronounced variability in a range of spatial and temporal scales. Among the climate variables, precipitation is the most important process for the water sector. It is a variable that drives the key natural resource process in a river basin. Therefore, it is most widely analysed in climate change impact studies.Run-off from a river basin is the integrated outcome of climatic inputs and basin topography, land use/cover, and water management infrastructure. Therefore, a change in the precipitation and other relevant climatic variables, land use/land cover, and water utilization leads to a change in water yield from a catchment and its temporal distribution. It was found that river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence 1,2 . This behaviour can confound the results of trend and significance tests.Global warming is unequivocal and is expected to be reflected in an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation ev...

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“…Of particular note is the large trans-national Satluj basin, which drains from glaciated headwaters in Tibet into Himachal Pradesh. An increase in mean annual air temperature of 1.6°C has been measured across the north-western Himalayan region during the past century, which is far in excess of mean global warming (Bhutiyani et al 2007).…”

Section: Study Region and Baseline Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

et al. 2016

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk 'hotspots', illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from 'high' to 'very high'. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges.

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Long-term trends in maximum, minimum and mean annual air temperatures across the Northwestern Himalaya during the twentieth century

Cited by 506 publications

References 55 publications

How do Himalayan areas respond to global warming?

How do Himalayan areas respond to global warming?

Trends in Rainfall and Peak Flows for some River Basins in India

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

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