Low Antarctic continental climate sensitivity due to high ice sheet orography

Singh, H. A.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00143-w

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Firstly, Southern Ocean is the crucial factor for the huge accumulated ocean heat uptake 7 . Secondly, the high elevation of Antarctica plays an important role in decreasing the susceptibility to CO 2 -forced warming 67 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

Xie

Jun

Kang

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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The polar amplification (PA) has become the focus of climate change. However, there are seldom comparisons of amplification among Earth’s three poles of Arctic (latitude higher than 60 °N), Antarctica (Antarctic Ice Sheet) and the Third Pole (the High Mountain Asia with the elevation higher than 4000 m) under different socioeconomic scenarios. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, two types of PA index (PAI) have been defined to quantify the PA intensity and variations, and PAI1/PAI2 is defined as the ratio of the absolute value of surface air temperature linear trend over Earth’s three poles and that for global mean/over other regions except Earth’s three poles. Arctic warms fastest in winter and weakest in summer, followed by the Third Pole, and Antarctica warms least. The similar phenomenon proceeds when global warming of 1.5–2.0 °C, and 2.0–3.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. After removing the Earth’s three poles self-influence, all the PAI2s increase much more obviously relative to the PAI1s, especially the Antarctic PAI. Earth’s three poles warm faster than the other regions. With the forcing increasing, PA accelerates much more over Antarctica and the Third Pole, but becomes weaker over Arctic. This demonstrates that future warming rate might make a large difference among Earth’s three poles under different scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

Xie

Jun

Kang

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…For example, a recent study [20] also infers that the Tibetan Plateau below 5 km exhibit EDW; it did not show any EDW above 5 km or in future climate projections. A study [65] demonstrated Antarctic exhibits low elevation warming in response to 2 × CO 2 forcing. Additionally, this past-future linkage concludes that elevation-dependent temperature changes strongly depend on the geographical orientation of mountains rather than CO 2 concentration.…”

Section: Partial Contributions From Radiative and Non-radiative Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elevation-dependent temperature response in early Eocene using paleoclimate model experiment

Kad

Blau

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Mountains become warmer with elevation in response to greenhouse gas warming, an effect known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). The Eocene is considered a replica of the future climate in an epoch with high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2). Therefore, the topographic features of the Eocene strata are of interest. However, obtaining proxy data for mountain regions during the Eocene hothouse is challenging. Paleoclimate model simulation is an effective tool for exploring past climate change. Therefore, we conducted sensitivity experiment simulations employing the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) forced by proxy-estimated CO2 levels. This is the first Eocene study demonstrating the elevation-dependent temperature changes and illustrated using the surface energy budget decomposition. Here five major mountain ranges have been chosen based on their paleogeographic continental location. We found a nonlinear response of elevation-dependent temperature change to CO2 concentrations regulated by seasonal variations. The radiative and non-radiative feedback compensation is responsible for the elevation-dependency temperature changes. Our results suggest temperature perturbations regulate elevation-dependent changes in skin temperature through a combination of feedback under greenhouse warming in the early Eocene. These findings also show future paradox response exhibiting elevation-dependent cooling overall mountain regions due to lower elevation warming.

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“…Antarctica is warming at slightly more than half the rate of the planet (0.56 times), largely due to high ice sheet orography (Singh & Polyani, 2020), weaker Antarctic surface albedo feedback, ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone depletion (Masson-Delmotte et al, 2013), and varying Antarctic surface heights (Salzmann, 2017). There is also significant inter-annual variation, begetting a low coefficient of determination with respect to the Antarctic 60-month moving average.…”

Section: Observational Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

21st Century Global and Regional Surface Temperature Projections

Ma¹,

Jiang

Hou

et al. 2022

Earth and Space Science

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Many countries and regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years. Recent crippling heat waves swept across the Earth, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of “tipping points” later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle. We show that global warming is accelerating unevenly across the planet, with the Arctic warming at more than three times the average rate of our world. We also analyzed the reliability of latitude‐dependent surface temperature simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and their multi‐model mean (MMM) by comparing their outputs to observational data sets. We selected the best‐performing models based on their statistical abilities to reproduce historical, latitude‐dependent values adapted from these data sets. The surface temperature projections were calculated from ensemble simulations of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) by the selected CMIP6 models. We estimate the calendar years of when surface temperatures will increase by 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5°C relative to the preindustrial period, both globally and in the three target regions. Our results reaffirm a dramatic, upward trend in projected surface temperatures, with unprecedented acceleration in the Arctic Circle, which could lead to catastrophic consequences across the Earth. Further studies are necessary to determine the most efficient solutions to reduce global warming acceleration and maintain a low SSP, both globally and regionally.

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Low Antarctic continental climate sensitivity due to high ice sheet orography

Cited by 10 publications

References 65 publications

Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

Elevation-dependent temperature response in early Eocene using paleoclimate model experiment

21st Century Global and Regional Surface Temperature Projections

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