Low fertility spread in China: A blended adaptation and diffusion explanation

Abstract

Based on blended diffusion theory which reconciles the two mechanisms of fertility change (due to adaptation to social structure change or due to diffusion), this study examines the role of adaptation and diffusion of China's low fertility in the first decade of the 21st century. A two-period panel data set on fertility for 358 prefecture-level administrative units assembled in 2000 and 361 in 2010 population census is used. Exploratory and confirmatory analysis techniques from spatial econometrics are applied to analyze this data. Results from exploratory spatial data analysis reveal a general spatial autocorrelation for fertility and its change. Inspection with local indicators of spatial autocorrelation identifies local spatial clusters of fertility: high-value clusters in the western region and low-value clusters in northeastern and east coast areas. Total fertility rates and its change are modelled with socioeconomic and demographic factors using a spatial lag Durbin model. The results suggest that the spread of low fertility in China tends to be consistent with blended diffusion theory. Low fertility in China not only adapts to economic growth, social development and even institution structure, but also influenced by diffusion of new attitudes and ideas related to childbearing and family formation. More importantly, adaptation diffuses too. Socioeconomic circumstances in neighbouring cities often are strongly interdependent. This study highlights the importance of 'bringing space back' to demographic research.

A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data

“…As a result, the TFRs in central China will decline in 2020. The estimated TFR in the northeast region was the lowest, which was consistent with previous studies 37 . This may be attributed to the earliest regions to industrialize, population migration, and relatively poor economic development levels in recent years 38 .…”

Effect of Work–Family Conflict on Three-Child Fertility Intention of Working Women of Reproductive Age under the Background of Active Reproductive Support: The Moderating and Mediating Effects of Anxiety Disorders and Life Stress

“…In the past ten years, China's total birth rate has been on a downward trend, and China is gradually entering a low-fertility country [1]. Demographic changes have a profound impact on the country's economic development, including pension burden and demographic dividend [2]. To this end, the Chinese government has made major adjustments to the fertility policy and successively introduced separate two-child and comprehensive two-child policies, but with little success [3].…”