Low-mobility: The future of transport

Moriarty, Patrick; Honnery, Damon

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.021

Cited by 98 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Political decisions or decline in aviation fuel production will affect future GDP growth, so it is advisable to revise economic outlooks and include a more holistic view of economic growth where fuel requirement and supply outlooks also are integrated. Moriarty and Honnery (2008) speculate that the future of transportation is lowmobility, since transport is a derived demand. In a future world with decreasing supply of fuel, the current BAU-outlooks from within the aviation industry are unrealistic.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

2009

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Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel.Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing.The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several per cent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

2009

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“…It is important to point out that this assumption may not hold true in the long term. Factors such as changes in transportation infrastructure, residential location, fuel prices and car ownership can significantly affect long term traffic patterns [25], [26]. Supervised learning methods may not work well in such cases.…”

Section: B Training and Test Data For Supervised Learningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Patterns in Large-Scale Traffic Speed Prediction

Asif

Dauwels

Goh

et al. 2014

IEEE Trans. Intell. Transport. Syst.

189

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Abstract-The ability to accurately predict traffic speed in a large and heterogeneous road network has many useful applications, such as route guidance and congestion avoidance. In principle, data driven methods such as Support Vector Regression (SVR) can predict traffic with high accuracy, because traffic tends to exhibit regular patterns over time. However, in practice, the prediction performance can vary significantly across the network and during different time periods. Insight into those spatial and temporal trends can improve the performance of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Traditional prediction error measures such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) provide information about individual links in the network, but do not capture global trends. We propose unsupervised learning methods, such as k-means clustering, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Self Organizing Maps (SOM) to mine spatial and temporal performance trends at both network level and for individual links. We perform prediction for a large, interconnected road network, for multiple prediction horizons, with SVR based algorithm. We show the effectiveness of the proposed performance analysis methods by applying them to the prediction data of SVR.Index Terms-Large-scale network prediction, spatial and temporal error trends.

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“…EV offer a totally set of possibilities [84,85] to reshape both the transportation system [86][87][88][89] and the Energy system [89,90]. It can provide a better overall performance from a comprehensive energy conversion chain [91].…”

Section: Sustainable Energy By Chance? the Driving Force Of Technologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the Global Energy Industry by Integrating Macro-Technologies: Challenges and Opportunities for Corporations

Piera¹

2013

EPE

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Emerging energy technologies and market evolution of some energy products, particularly natural gas, can converge to produce a new global scenario closer to the objectives of Sustainable Development, with a smooth transition that would avoid social and economic upheavals and could open a new cycle of growth and wealth. The first steps of unconventional gas production have induced stabilization in the gas spot price that should be continued to guarantee stable prices in the long term. Another line of development that should start a second phase of consolidation and cost reduction is the field of Renewable Energies. Besides research and technology advancements, a new financial deal could substitute for subsidies and feed-in tariffs. Last but not least, electric vehicles and other emerging technologies from the demand side will also have a main role in this quest to re-structure the Energy sector, where a new hierarchy of energy goods and energy applications will appear, and a better integral use of energy will take place. A main consequence of that will be a significant reduction of CO 2 emissions, and a cheaper cost of energy, although fiscal policies could swallow this advantage. In this transition, which would likely last thirty years or so, energy corporations will have to face challenges and opportunities to consolidate their working and value-adding status.

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Low-mobility: The future of transport

Cited by 98 publications

References 34 publications

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

Spatiotemporal Patterns in Large-Scale Traffic Speed Prediction

Improving the Global Energy Industry by Integrating Macro-Technologies: Challenges and Opportunities for Corporations

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