Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

Nygren, Emma; Aleklett, K.; Höök, Mikael

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.04.048

Cited by 122 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Algae might be another alternative, but expectations on algae exceed their potential, with many technical and biological problems remaining unsolved [17]. Nevertheless, there is still ongoing discussion regarding the capacity of biofuels to replace conventional jet fuel [15,18] and vigorous debate over food security versus energy crops [19].…”

Section: Different Scenarios For Reducing Air Transport Co 2 Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions

Jovanovic¹,

Vracarevic²

2016

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1] has declared that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal" and concluded that most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is the result of human activities that are increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere.The IPCC [1] further projected that the pace of climate change is going to accelerate with continued GHG emissions, and that even if atmospheric concentrations of GHGs were stabilized at current levels, the Earth would continue to warm as a result of past GHG emissions and feedbacks in the global climate system [2].The IPCC [1] suggests that even if CO 2 emissions decline by 85% (of 2000 emissions) by 2050, average global warming is likely to remain between 2.0ºC and 2.4ºC by the end of the century [2].Hence, global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) should be kept below 450 ppmv. In order to achieve this, a reduction of GHG emissions by about 80% is required by 2050 for developed economies, while at the same time room for development for developing countries is created.Pol. J. Environ. Stud. Vol. 25, No. 5 (2016), 1975-1984 AbstractIn this paper we confront widely accepted global climate stabilization goals (70% reduction of CO 2 emissions) with the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) forecasts of future commercial aviation growth, in order to explore the real possibilities of realizing these climate stabilization goals. By using ICAO forecasts, we clearly show that, instead of the proclaimed 70% reduction of CO 2 emissions, air transport's CO 2 emissions are going to rise five-fold (4.9 times) in the 2005-40 period. But even if a 70% increase of aviation's energy efficiency and reduction of CO 2 emissions could be somehow (miraculously) achieved, CO 2 emissions of air transport would be higher by 50% in 2040 (than in 2005), due to the sudden increase in the volume of air-transport tourist trips. So, if the aim is to achieve ambitious energy consumption and GHG reduction for air transport within the next few decades, policies should aim at reducing total consumption, which means reducing VKT -not just vehicle-specific consumption. Due to the extremely high growth rates in the volume of air traffic, it is highly unlikely that technical progress of engines will be sufficient to reduce overall emissions or even keep them at today's levels. Hence, the policy focus should shift to more rigorous and efficient implementation of market-driven instruments, which, apart from creating incentives to develop and use low-emission technologies, can also reduce the demand for travel.

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Section: Different Scenarios For Reducing Air Transport Co 2 Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions

Jovanovic¹,

Vracarevic²

2016

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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“…The ICAO Council, in its climate change mitigation program, set an aspirational target for the World Air Transport sector of 2.0% yearly improvement until 2020. Fuel efficiency is not only important from an environmental point of view: the aviation industry outlook on future traffic does not look realistic in the light of future crude oil production, taken that the aviation fuel percentage of refinery output cannot be increased hugely (Nygren et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of the current incentive rules and mechanisms to promote biofuel use in the EU and their possible application to the civil aviation sector

Noh

Benito

Alonso

2016

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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This paper deals with the need of introducing biofuels for the use of the civil aviation sector, and the different possibilities of application of incentive mechanisms if the existing market conditions do not allow their direct commercialisation. After an introduction on the main features of the civil aviation impact on climate change, a historical review of the European Union regulations to promote the energy extraction from biological resources is presented. The different incentive policies around the world are revised and compared and some indications are offered on the most recommendable procedures that might be carried out in the near future.

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“…However, production of aviation biofuels is still far from the industrial scale and the high quality requirements for the commercial aviation fuels limit the broad application of current alternative fuels for all exiting aircraft (Waynick, 2001;Daggett et al, 2008;Nygren, Aleklett, and Höök;Lee, 2010;Gupta, Rehman, and Sarviya, 2010). To promote sustainable alternative aviation fuels, support of governments and policy makers is essential.…”

Section: Sustainable Alternative Fuelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…EU ambitious goal of an overall fuel efficiency improvement of 50% by 2020 is following by ACARE (the Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe) to provide strategic advisory in the sector on the way of achieving this goal (European Commission 2011b). This 50% cut in aviation CO2 emissions is achievable by improvements in the following areas (Airbus, 2007;Nygren, Aleklett, and Höök, 2009):…”

Section: Eu Technology Advancementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Worldwide political instabilities, economic growth rates across the world, development of new technologies, global climate change policies and strategies, all affect oil price (DECC, 2015;EIA, 2016). The aviation industry is very dependent on oil products and consumes almost 6.3% of world refinery productions including both jet fuel and aviation gasoline (Nygren et al 2009). According to Becken and Lennox (2012) in the short term a large number of factors influences the price of oil, while long-term prices are driven by world oil demand and supply, which is ultimately limited by resources.…”

Section: Fossil Fuel Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions in the European Union

Aminzadeh¹

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The environmental sustainability of the air transport industry, as a key player in global social and economic development, has become a major issue in the agenda of the industry´s stakeholders during the past decade. On both international and local levels, policy makers, scientists and environmentalists, manufacturers and airlines have begun to collaborate on fuel efficiency improvements and greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the sector.This dissertation evaluates the structure and distribution of air traffic in European Union member states. The data presented here has been extracted from the statistical office of the European Union (Eurostat) and databases compiled by the The European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). The focus of this study is on commercial air traffic and CO2 emissions in the European Union in 2010 and its evolution through 2013.The extracted data for all EU countries consist of variables such as: number of flights, number of passengers, freight tonnes, revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) and revenue tonne kilometers (RTKs), fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The majority of EU air transport traffic is concentrated in six countries: France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain and The United Kingdom, which in 2010 represented approximately two thirds of the total EU flights. The data is then segmented per distance bands, at intervals of 500 km to see the concentration of traffic in different distance bands and compare their share with other modes of transport. The fuel efficiency trend in the six largest EU aviation markets from 2010 to 2013 is analyzed and the potential reasons for the changes are investigated. The evolution in the airline fleet composition during the last decade is presented as one of the reasons for the improvement in fuel efficiency, measured by fuel efficiency parameter measuring fuel consumption per RTK (passengers + freight). Additionally, the differences in terms of fuel efficiency among the various airline business models (network carriers, low cost carriers, etc.) and aircraft types are studied. Moreover, future CO2 emissions are projected, taking into consideration three different traffic growth and efficiency improvement scenarios.The results of this analysis indicate a slight reduction in the traffic, both for passengers and freight about (-0.8%) but more importantly, a reduction in CO2 emissions (-4.3%), which is the result of an improvement in fuel efficiency parameters (-3.5%) during these three years. There has been a relevant change in the fleet composition in the last ten years, with the replacement of older models for more efficient ones, and a shift to larger aircraft, particularly in the regional segment. Traffic has decreased in shorter distances (internal EU traffic), but increased in more efficient long-range flights (extra-EU traffic), resulting also in an improvement in the efficiency parameters as average aircraft size and stage length increases. This investigation concludes that technological efficiency in...

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Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

Cited by 122 publications

References 5 publications

Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions

Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions

Study of the current incentive rules and mechanisms to promote biofuel use in the EU and their possible application to the civil aviation sector

Analysis of evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions in the European Union

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