LP-CEM: A modeling tool for power systems planning incorporating climate change effects and macroeconomic trends for New Jersey, United States

Abstract

The electric power sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, yet long-term capacity expansion models often fail to take into account for it. This paper presents an overview of LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model), which incorporates both the effects of long-term warming and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. We apply the modeling framework for the electric power system in New Jersey, United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections data in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/region-level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation policies to climate change. Scenarios with climate variability, climate change effects and with high economic growth rates result in higher capacity additions, supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs in the next forty years.