&lt;i&gt;gcamdata&lt;/i&gt;: An R Package for Preparation, Synthesis, and Tracking of Input Data for the GCAM Integrated Human-Earth Systems Model

Bond‐Lamberty, Ben; Dorheim, Kalyn; Cui, Ryna; Horowitz, Russell; Snyder, Abigail; Calvin, Katherine; Feng, Leyang; Hoesly, Rachel; Horing, Jill; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Patel, Pralit; Roney, Christopher; Staniszewski, Aaron; Turner, Sean; Chen, Min; Feijoo, Felipe; Hartin, Corinne; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Sonny; Liu, Yaling; Lynch, Cary; McJeon, Haewon; Smith, Steve; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Wise, Marshall; Clarke, Leon

doi:10.5334/jors.232

Cited by 26 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…At the basin scale, time series of yields are converted to multipliers by dividing by the historical baseline average yield for each crop-irrigation-basin combination. Finally, these crop-irrigation-basin specific multipliers are converted from the crop model specific crop types to multipliers for each GCAM commodity-irrigation-basin combination using GTAP harvested area weights from the GCAM data system [ 27 ] for aggregation. This method for incorporating climate driven yield changes as multipliers on GCAM's exogenous yield assumptions follows methods used in the broader literature [ 4 , 24 , 28 – 32 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

et al. 2020

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Agricultural crop yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural crop yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally through international commodity markets. Here we present a replication study of previous investigations (with different models) showing that potential direct domestic climate effects on crop yields in the U.S. have financial consequences for U.S. producers on the same order of magnitude but opposite in sign to indirect financial impacts on U.S. producers from climate effects on crop yields elsewhere in the world. We conclude that the analysis of country-specific financial climate impacts cannot ignore indirect effects arising through international markets. We find our results to be robust across a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts analyzed in the multi-sector dynamic global model GCAM. 1 Introduction Research is increasingly showing that agricultural crop yields will be susceptible to future changes in temperature, precipitation, length of growing seasons, and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations [1-9]. While future climate is uncertain, the potential for important effects on major agricultural crop producers such as the U.S. is clear [4, 8, 10-14]. The quantity and composition of U.S. agricultural crop production, where crops are grown, trade, and economic value of U.S. crop production could be affected. An important challenge in understanding these implications is that agricultural products are traded across the globe. The U.S. is both a major agricultural importer and exporter of agricultural crops, meaning that U.S. agriculture may be affected not only by future climate in the U.S., but also future climate outside of the U.S. via international trade. These international linkages raise questions about the relative importance of the direct and indirect effects on U.S. agriculture; that is, is the potential for changes in temperature and precipitation in the U.S. (referred to here as domestic effects) more or less important than the potential for changes outside of the U.S. (referred to here as international effects) to U.S. agricultural crop producers?

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

et al. 2020

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“…GCAM. GCAM is a market equilibrium model that links energy, water, land, economy, and climate systems [44][45][46] . GCAM adjusts prices of goods and services within each model time step to equilibrate the supply and demand of goods and services at each time step, and thus simultaneously clears markets across sectors.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in the trading of virtual water

et al. 2020

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Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21 st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century.

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“…The model is modified to run in annual time steps to 2050 using external drivers of population, GDP, agricultural productivity, and technological progress. The GCAM data system is written in an open-source R package 26 to clean and process source data and parameters into the format required in the model while maintaining transparency and traceability. GCAM was involved in the AgMIP 3,27 and widely used for studying climate impacts on agriculture and land use 28,29 .…”

Section: Global Change Analysis Model (Gcam) Gcam Is a Dynamic Recurmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The GCAM data system is publicly available 26 . The biophysical yield data projected from climate and crop models are publicly available at https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/search/isimip-ft/.…”

Section: Data Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets

Zhao¹,

Calvin²,

Wise³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Most studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture have focused on average changes in market-mediated responses (e.g., changes in land use, production, and consumption). However, the response of global agricultural markets to interannual variability in climate and biophysical shocks is poorly understood and not well represented in global economic models. Here we show a strong transmission of interannual variations in climate-induced biophysical yield shocks to agriculture markets, which is further magnified by endogenous market fluctuations generated due to producers’ imperfect expectations of market and weather conditions. We demonstrate that the volatility of crop prices and consumption could be significantly underestimated (i.e., on average by 55% and 41%, respectively) by assuming perfect foresight, a standard assumption in the economic equilibrium modeling, compared with the relatively more realistic adaptive expectations. We also find heterogeneity in interannual variability across crops and regions, which is considerably mediated by international trade.

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<i>gcamdata</i>: An R Package for Preparation, Synthesis, and Tracking of Input Data for the GCAM Integrated Human-Earth Systems Model

Cited by 26 publications

References 20 publications

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

Future changes in the trading of virtual water

Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets

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