A D-shaped photonic crystal fiber refractive index (RI) sensor is designed, and its performance is analyzed using the finite element method (FEM). A gold film is coated on the D-shaped surface of the fiber as a plasmonic material for surface plasmon resonance sensing. The U-shaped arrangement of holes of the same size in the fiber structure enhances the coupling resonance between the core mode and the surface plasmon polariton mode. Numerical results show that the RI range of the sensor is 1.20–1.40, the maximum wavelength sensitivity is 16008.98 nm/RIU, and the detection width is up to 0.2 RIU. In addition, this study analyzes the manufacturing tolerance for the sizes of the air holes. The results show that the manufacturing tolerance for the three types of air holes is as high as 25%, 11.1%, and 10.2% when h is 40µm. These findings lay the foundation for the mass production of sensors. The above results indicate that the sensor has remarkable advantages such as enhanced sensitivity, wide measurement range, and exceptional manufacturing stability, and has promising applications in the fields of bio-detection, drug supply detection, and water pollution control.