Machine Learning Assisted Quality of Transmission Estimation and Planning with Reduced Margins

Abstract

In optical transport networks, the Quality of Transmission (QoT) using a physical layer model (PLM) is estimated before establishing new or reconfiguring established optical connections. Traditionally, high margins are added to account for the model's inaccuracy and the uncertainty in the current and evolving physical layer conditions, targeting uninterrupted operation for several years, until the end-of-life (EOL). Reducing the margins increases network efficiency but requires accurate QoT estimation. We present two machine learning (ML) assisted QoT estimators that leverage monitoring data of existing connections to understand the actual physical layer conditions and achieve high estimation accuracy. We then quantify the benefits of planning/upgrading a network over multiple periods with accurate QoT estimation as opposed to planning with EOL margins.