Macro developments in the China and Southeast Asia beef sector

Abstract

The ‘international livestock revolution’ (ILR) literature has documented an increase in livestock production in developing countries over the past 40 years that has not kept pace with consumption, leading to increased prices and trade. These trends were forecast to increase into the future, with important implications for development, agribusiness and policy in developing countries. The trends have unfolded as forecast in the dynamic and diverse China and Southeast Asia region, but to a much greater extent than forecast and in ways that could not have been foreseen. The present study revises official statistics and incorporates data on informal trade flows to show that the gap between consumption and production, as well as trade flows both within the region and into it, are much higher than has been officially reported. It draws on a large range of secondary and primary data to investigate the drivers of change, including reasons for lagged production responses to price growth in terms of cattle numbers, and higher than officially reported productivity indicators.

Price transmission in regional beef markets: Australia, China and Southeast Asia

“…Note: Domestic supply=Domestic production+Import -Export. Sources: Domestic production statistics are drawn from country sources and revised according to methods described in Waldron et al (2017). Formal trade data are drawn from UN Comtrade.…”

“…Led by China and Vietnam, incomes and urbanization increased per capita beef consumption in the region by 1.9% per year between 2000 and 2014, far higher than the increases in per capita beef production of 0.8%. The shortfall between consumption and production has resulted in very high growth in the trade of cattle and beef of 16% and also seen an average rise in beef prices of 6.5% per annum over the period (Waldron et al, 2017). These developments have proved fortuitous for Australia in absorbing high cattle turnoff numbers from an extended drought in the 2010s.…”