Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.

doi:10.1038/nclimate3203

Cited by 188 publications

(167 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…, Osland et al. , ; Gabler et al., ). In general, as rainfall and freshwater inputs decrease, salinities increase and salt flats (i.e., hypersaline areas without plant coverage) become more abundant.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, , , , Cavanaugh et al. , ; Gabler et al., ). These studies have demonstrated the potential to identify ecological thresholds via analyses that incorporate variables based upon absolute minimum air temperatures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Osland et al. ; Gabler et al., ). We hypothesized that precipitation‐based thresholds would be lower for mangrove presence than for abundance and/or species richness (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

Osland

Feher

Griffith

et al. 2017

Ecological Monographs

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263

217

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Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate–mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global‐scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global‐scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range‐limit‐specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature‐based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall‐based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west‐central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semiarid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate–mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global‐ and regional‐scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

Osland

Feher

Griffith

et al. 2017

Ecological Monographs

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263

217

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“…The northern Gulf of Mexico spans two climatic gradients that greatly influence the structure and functioning of coastal wetlands. Whereas a gradient in winter temperature extremes governs the distribution of cold‐sensitive mangrove forests and cold‐tolerant salt marsh graminoids (Cavanaugh et al, ; Lugo & Patterson‐Zucca, ; Osland et al, ), a gradient in precipitation governs total plant coverage, plant height, the abundance of succulent plants, and the coverage of microbial mats (Gabler et al, ; Longley, ; Osland et al, ). To characterize the influence of climate on the targeted ecological properties, we collected data from 10 estuaries (Figure ; Supporting Information Figure S1), which were selected to span the region's ecologically relevant temperature and precipitation gradients.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and plant controls on soil organic matter in coastal wetlands

Osland

Gabler

Grace

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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135

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Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and carbon-rich ecosystems on Earth. Long-term carbon storage in coastal wetlands occurs primarily belowground as soil organic matter (SOM). In addition to serving as a carbon sink, SOM influences wetland ecosystem structure, function, and stability. To anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change, there is a need to advance understanding of environmental controls on wetland SOM. Here, we investigated the influence of four soil formation factors: climate, biota, parent materials, and topography. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, we collected wetland plant and soil data across elevation and zonation gradients within 10 estuaries that span broad temperature and precipitation gradients. Our results highlight the importance of climate-plant controls and indicate that the influence of elevation is scale and location dependent. Coastal wetland plants are sensitive to climate change; small changes in temperature or precipitation can transform coastal wetland plant communities. Across the region, SOM was greatest in mangrove forests and in salt marshes dominated by graminoid plants. SOM was lower in salt flats that lacked vascular plants and in salt marshes dominated by succulent plants. We quantified strong relationships between precipitation, salinity, plant productivity, and SOM. Low precipitation leads to high salinity, which limits plant productivity and appears to constrain SOM accumulation. Our analyses use data from the Gulf of Mexico, but our results can be related to coastal wetlands across the globe and provide a foundation for predicting the ecological effects of future reductions in precipitation and freshwater availability. Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that are SOM dependent and highly vulnerable to climate change. Collectively, our results indicate that future changes in SOM and plant productivity, regulated by cascading effects of precipitation on freshwater availability and salinity, could impact wetland stability and affect the supply of some wetland ecosystem services.

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“…; Gabler et al. ), which can be exacerbated by strong top‐down effects of consumers, such as snails, crabs, and geese (He et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather fluctuations affect the impact of consumers on vegetation recovery following a catastrophic die‐off

Silliman

Koppel

et al. 2018

Ecology

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Prolonged droughts exacerbated by climate change have been widely documented to interact with consumers to decimate vegetation in many ecosystems. Although climate change is increasing within‐year variation in precipitation and temperature, how weather fluctuations affect the impact of consumers on vegetation processes remains poorly understood. In a salt marsh that has recently experienced drought‐associated vegetation die‐off, we investigated how top‐down control of plant recovery by a prominent salt marsh grazer varies with weather. Our results showed that grazing‐driven plant mortality varied strongly with weather in spring, with intense grazing occurring during cool, wet days immediately following rain. Intense grazing on cool, wet days across the generally dry spring season had a strong impact that eliminated plant seedlings that could otherwise have become tolerant of grazing in the following summer, thereby restricting vegetation recovery and contributing to the persistence of an unvegetated salt barren state. Thus, weather fluctuations can modulate the impact of consumers on vegetation recovery, a fundamental process underlying the fate of ecosystems after disturbances. A multi‐timescale perspective on top‐down control that combines the impact of short‐term fluctuations in weather and that of long‐term variation in mean climate can not only help understand ecosystem dynamics in an increasingly variable climate, but may also inform conservation strategies or recovery plans for ecosystems that are already lost to climate change.

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Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

Cited by 188 publications

References 35 publications

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

Climate and plant controls on soil organic matter in coastal wetlands

Weather fluctuations affect the impact of consumers on vegetation recovery following a catastrophic die‐off

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