Macroeconomic modeling based on social-accounting principles

Drud, Arne; Grais, Wafik; Pyatt, Graham

doi:10.1016/0161-8938(86)90007-4

Cited by 45 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The main components of the Economic sector included in T21-USA are related to the four agents acting in the USA economy: producers, government, households, and the rest of the world (ROW) (Pyatt, 1991;Drud et al, 1986).…”

Section: Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and the rest of the world

2010

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Section: Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and the rest of the world

2010

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“…CGE modelling is an established economic analysis tool, particularly since the development of the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) approach to national accounting, e.g., (Pyatt, 1992;Stone, 1962a;Stone, 1962b), and the SAM approach to modelling, e.g., (Drud, Grais, & Pyatt, 1986;Pyatt, 1987). However, applications by health economists have been rare (Bell & Gersbach, 2009;Jonung & Roeger, 2006;Rutten & Reed, 2009;Smith, Keogh-Brown, Barnett and Tait, 2009;Smith, Yago, Millar, & Coast, 2005 and hence CGE remains novel in this field (Beutels, Edmunds et al 2007;Smith 2008).…”

Section: Cge Model and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK

Smith

Keogh-Brown

Barnett

2011

Social Science & Medicine

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There is concern regarding the impact that a global infectious disease pandemic might have, especially the economic impact in the current financial climate. However, preparedness planning concentrates more upon population health and maintaining a functioning health sector than on the wider economic impact. We developed a single country Computable General Equilibrium model to estimate the economic impact of pandemic influenza (PI) and associated policies. While the context for this development was the United Kingdom, there are lessons to be drawn for application of this methodology, as well as indicative results, to other contexts. Disease scenarios were constructed from an epidemiological model which estimated case fatality rates (mild, moderate and severe) as 0.06%, 0.18% and 0.35%. A clinical attack rate of 35% was also used to produce influenza scenarios, together with preparedness policies, including antivirals and school closure, and the possible prophylactic absence of workers. U.K. cost estimates (in Sterling) are presented, together with relative percentage impacts applicable to similar large economies. Percentage/cost estimates suggest PI would reduce GDP by 0.3% (£ 3.5 bn), 0.4% (£ 5 bn) and 0.6% (£ 7.4 bn) respectively for the three disease scenarios. However, the impact of PI itself is smaller than disease mitigation policies: combining school closure with prophylactic absenteeism yields percentage/cost effects of 1.1% (£ 14.7 bn), 1.3% (£ 16.3 bn) and 1.4% (£ 18.5 bn) respectively for the three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis shows little variability with changes in disease parameters but notable changes with variations in school closure and prophylactic absenteeism. The most severe sensitivity scenario results in a 2.9% (£ 37.4 bn), 3.2% (£ 41.4 bn) and 3.7% (£ 47.5 bn) loss to GDP respectively for the three scenarios.

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“…There is no objective function in GEM-E3: being a full CGE model, the equations underlying the structure of the model define the behavior of the actors identified with the SAM [36].…”

Section: Models Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Use of an Integrated Approach to Support Energy and Climate Policy Formulation and Evaluation

Bassi

2010

Energies

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Abstract:With the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 national leaders have started investigating options for reducing carbon emissions within national borders [1]. Despite confronting similar energy issues, every country that adopted the Kyoto Protocol has a unique energy strategy [1,2] -being characterized by a different context, social, economic or environmental that influences the way different nations deal with climate change and other energy-related issues. Finding that currently available energy models are often too detailed or narrowly focused to inform longer-term policy formulation and evaluation holistically [3], the present study proposes the utilization of an integrated cross-sectoral medium to longer-term research and modeling approach, incorporating various methodologies to minimize exogenous assumptions and endogenously represent the key drivers of the system analyzed. The framework proposed includes feedback, delays and non-linearity and focuses on structure, scenarios and policies, requires a profound customization of the model that goes beyond a new parameterization. The inclusion of social and environmental factors, in addition to economic ones, all unique to the geographical area analyzed, allows for a wider analysis of the implication of policies by identifying potential side effect or longer-term bottlenecks for socio-economic development and environmental preservation arising from cross-sectoral relations.

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Macroeconomic modeling based on social-accounting principles

Cited by 45 publications

References 5 publications

An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and the rest of the world

An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and the rest of the world

Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK

Evaluating the Use of an Integrated Approach to Support Energy and Climate Policy Formulation and Evaluation

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