Magnitudes of Climate Variability and Changes over the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya between 1961 and 2013 Period

Abstract

The magnitude and trend of temperature and rainfall extremes as indicators of climate variability and change were investigated in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of Kenya using in-situ measurements and gridded climate proxy datasets, and analysed using the Gaussian-Kernel analysis and the Mann-Kendall statistics. The results show that the maximum and minimum temperatures have been increasing, with warmer temperatures being experienced mostly at night time. The average change in the mean maximum and minimum seasonal surface air temperature for the region were 0.74˚C and 0.60˚C, respectively between the 1961-1990 and 1991-2013 periods. Decreasing but statistically insignificant trends in the seasonal rainfall were noted in the area, but with mixed patterns in variability. The March-April-May rainfall season indicated the highest decrease in the seasonal rainfall amounts. The southern parts of the region had a decreasing trend in rainfall that was greater than that of the northern areas. The results of this study are expected to support sustainable pastoralism system prevalent with the local communities in the ASALs.

Understanding the Role of User Needs and Perceptions Related to Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Forecasts on Farmers' Decisions in Kenya: A Systematic Review

“…Actually, Habane (2010) and Ontiri and Robinson (2015) confirm that drought and water scarcity are major issues affecting pastoralists in semiarid lands in Kenya, which strengthens the previous suggestion that such risks can be addressed using WCI. For example, reports of increasing droughts, floods, and temperatures in Isiolo are consistent with historical climate data (Ouma, 2015;Ouma et al, 2018;Recha, 2018). Lack of credit is a hindrance to adoption and use of WCI and ability to buy inputs in Isiolo and other semiarid areas as well as cultural and religious beliefs and poverty, which increases vulnerability (Luseno et al, 2003;Mosberg et al, 2017) and migration patterns of pastoralists (Syomiti et al, 2015;Zwaluw, 2015).…”

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Rainfall and Temperature in the Amboseli Ecosystem of Kenya

“…In this study we sought to establish the climatic trends of Amboseli ecosystem using blended climate data and further analyse the climate projections based on Representative Concentration Projections using Regional Climate Models. In many parts of Africa and especially in dry ecosystem there is lack of meteorological rainfall gauges and their densities are low [17]. [35] reports that blended satellite-rainfall data should be used when the number of meteorological stations is low, and that availability of satellite rainfall estimates improves the analysis.…”

“…In Africa the impacts of climate change are not well investigated because of lack of data in many parts especially in the dry lands where there has been no big investments in setting up rain gauges or establishing meteorological stations [17] [18]. The objective of this study therefore was to analyse the historical and projected rainfall and temperature changes for Amboseli ecosystem in southern rangelands of Kenya.…”

Assessing Rainfall and Temperature Changes in Semi-Arid Areas of Tanzania

“…Similar observations have been reported by [23] in a study of climate variability in Shinyanga and Singida. Intra-seasonal factors, such as timing of the onset of first rains affecting the crop planting regimes [39], the distribution and length of rain during the growing season [40] and effectiveness of rains in each precipitation event [39], are the real criteria that determine the effectiveness and success of farming. The clear decreasing trend in February implies that rainfall was decreasing during the critical crop growing period.…”