Malthus to Solow

Hansen, Gary D.; Prescott, Edward C.

doi:10.21034/sr.257

Cited by 210 publications

(353 citation statements)

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“…We assume Malthusian population dynamics [ Malthus , ]; the society is able to grow as long as it has enough resources and experiences a decline when the resources fall below a minimum level or subsistence level. While industrialized countries, after having experienced a post‐Malthusian regime, are characterized by a modern growth regime, the theory of Malthus is generally accepted to describe the socio‐economic situation before industrialization took place [ Kögel and Prskawetz , ; Galor and Weil , ; Hansen and Prescott , ].…”

Section: Model Conceptualizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

Kuil

Carr

Viglione

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

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With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.

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Section: Model Conceptualizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

Kuil

Carr

Viglione

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

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“…GPR (2002) indicate that there are theoretical reasons to believe that a value close to

\overset{a}{true}

is appropriate. Models with endogenous fertility, for example, suggest that output per capita will be close to subsistence levels for economies that have not begun the process of industrialization (Galor and Weil, ; Hansen and Prescott, ).…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These authors focus, however, on the institutional barriers that prevent the adoption of agricultural technology and economy‐wide productivity enhancer factors. These papers are part of a broader literature that includes agriculture in growth frameworks (Echevarria, ; Kongsamut et al, ; Glomm, ; Laitner, ; Hansen and Prescott, ; Tamura, ; Lucas, ; Donovan, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Productivity, Structural Change and LatinAmerican Development

Machicado

Rioja

Saravia

2014

Review Development Economics

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractWe calibrate a simple neoclassical model of structural transformation to a set of Latin American countries and show that slow growth in agricultural productivity can substantially delay the development process and result in significant differences in per capita incomes. Some of our results indicate that low agricultural productivity delayed the beginning of the industrialization process in Paraguay and Bolivia by about 100 years compared to the leader of the group, Chile. The development process can be accelerated, however, by increasing productivity in the non-agricultural sector. In fact, in the long run, it is non-agricultural productivity what determines the speed of convergence. Improvements in non-agricultural productivity between 20% to over 100% would be required for the other Latin American countries in our set to significantly close the income gap with Chile by the end of the century.

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“…Although voluminous literature on growth and convergence since the 1980s has been dominated by the neoclassical framework, and inadequate attention has been paid to the role of structural change as a convergence mechanism (O’ Leary, 2006), yet there have emerged many recent studies that highlight the effects of structural factors on cross‐country (‐region) growth and convergence. These recent studies include Laitner (2000), Hansen and Prescott (2002), Gollin et al (2002), O’Leary (2003, 2006), Dekle and Vandenbroucke (2006), Ngai and Pissarides (2007), Sassi (2007), Brandt et al (2008), Lee and Malin (2009), Vollrath (2009), Dessy et al (2010) and Jiang (2010), to name but a few, of which Dekle and Vandenbroucke (2006), Brandt et al (2008), Lee and Malin (2009) and Jiang (2010) are related to China's growth and structural change under its economic reforms. Dekle and Vandenbroucke (2006) decompose China's economy into three sectors: the private agricultural sector, the private non‐agricultural sector and the public non‐agricultural sector.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural Change and Growth in China Under Economic Reforms: Patterns, Causes and Implications

Jiang

2011

Rev Urban & Reg Develop

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This paper investigates the patterns, causes, and implications of China's structural change and its contribution to China's regional growth. Among many other findings, our regression results show that conditional convergence exists across different regions in China.Regional structural change has a convergence effect and regional openness facilitates regional structural change. Structural shocks and structural transformation had the opposite effect on China's interregional convergence during the 1990s, though the combined effect of overall structural change is a convergence effect. We also find that Chinese regions rely more heavily on structural change for labor productivity growth as the economy evolves. In summary, the results of our empirical analysis support the hypothesis underlying the theoretical model of this paper.

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Malthus to Solow

Cited by 210 publications

References 0 publications

Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

Productivity, Structural Change and LatinAmerican Development

Structural Change and Growth in China Under Economic Reforms: Patterns, Causes and Implications

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