Mapping Avian Influenza Transmission Risk at the Interface of Domestic Poultry and Wild Birds

Prosser, Diann J.; Hungerford, Laura L.; Erwin, R.M.; Ottinger, Mary Ann; Takekawa, John Y.; Ellis, Erle C.

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2013.00028

Cited by 54 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Our models indicated both a high degree of such interaction, or clustering, between outbreaks during October to March and between April and September at localized, large scale, as well as a concomitant effect of poultry density, which together provide support for poultry density and mixing as important drivers of domestic HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. Similar associations between increasing chicken density and increasing risk of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks have been identified in more localized analyses in China (Prosser et al., ), Thailand and Vietnam (Gilbert et al., ), and in one global study with a particular focus on South‐East Asia (Hogerwerf et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

The Landscape Epidemiology of Seasonal Clustering of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Domestic Poultry in Africa, Europe and Asia

Walsh

Amstislavski

Greene

et al. 2016

Transbound Emerg Dis

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Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 (H5N1) has contributed to substantial economic loss for backyard and large-scale poultry farmers each year since 1997. While the distribution of domestic H5N1 outbreaks across Africa, Europe and Asia is extensive, those features of the landscape conferring greatest risk remain uncertain. Furthermore, the extent to which influential landscape features may vary by season has been inadequately described. The current investigation used World Organization for Animal Health surveillance data to (i) delineate areas at greatest risk of H5N1 epizootics among domestic poultry, (ii) identify those abiotic and biotic features of the landscape associated with outbreak risk and (iii) examine patterns of epizootic clustering by season. Inhomogeneous point process models were used to predict the intensity of H5N1 outbreaks and describe the spatial dependencies between them. During October through March, decreasing precipitation, increasing isothermality and the presence of H5N1 in wild birds were significantly associated with the increased risk of domestic H5N1 epizootics. Conversely, increasing precipitation and decreasing isothermality were associated with the increased risk during April through September. Increasing temperature during the coldest quarter, domestic poultry density and proximity to surface water were associated with the increased risk of domestic outbreaks throughout the year. Spatial dependencies between outbreaks appeared to vary seasonally, with substantial clustering at small and large scales identified during October through March even after accounting for inhomogeneity due to landscape factors. In contrast, during April to September, H5N1 outbreaks exhibited no clustering at small scale once accounting for landscape factors. This investigation has identified seasonal differences in risk and clustering patterns of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry and may suggest strategies in high-risk areas with features amenable to intervention such as controlling domestic bird movement in areas of high poultry density or preventing contact between poultry and wild birds and/or surface water features.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

The Landscape Epidemiology of Seasonal Clustering of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Domestic Poultry in Africa, Europe and Asia

Walsh

Amstislavski

Greene

et al. 2016

Transbound Emerg Dis

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“…Also, presence of migratory birds coming from Russia and China staying in the marshes of Al-Basra in winter months may contribute to transmission of the disease to poultry farms and to humans as a result of using meat of these birds for human consumption in those areas, hence, possibility of spread of the virus is increased during this season especially with the H9 subtype which was reported in wild geese, coots, mallards and flamingo in different areas of Iraq (Abdul-Sada, 2015) . It is known that wild birds are responsible for distribution of different AIV subtypes for man and animals all over the world (Prosser et al, 2013;Bevins et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence of AIV subtype H9 among poultry with respiratory signs in Iraq

Kraidi¹,

Langeroudi²,

Madadgar³

et al. 2017

BJVM

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The H9N2 avian influenza A viruses (AIV) have been recorded in Eurasia for several years. In this study, the prevalence of the circulated H9 subtype in the poultry population in middle and south of Iraq provinces was studied during a period from September 2014 to June 2015. Samples were collected from one hundred broiler flocks with respiratory signs from seven provinces. The detection and identification of virus were carried out by using highly sensitive method, Taqman Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction, which has been increasingly used for detecting avian pathogens in recent years. The prevalence of H9 subtype in 16% of the infected flocks was reported, and the results revealed that there was a significant difference (P<0.05) in the prevalence rate of H9 subtype among broiler flocks in Al-Basra, Al-Qadisyia and An-Najaf provinces (14.28%, 20% and 23.80%, respectively) as compared to other provinces, while An-Najaf province had the highest prevalence rate (23.80%) among all other provinces. The H9 subtype has been recorded for the first time in broiler flocks of Al-Basra and Wasit with lower prevalence rate in Wasit (10%). The prevalence of the H9 virus infection in the winter (75%) was higher than that in summer (25%). Since the provinces are in the vicinity of the Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait with H9 infection records, results of this study indicate circulation of AIV between these countries and in the larger scale, Middle East. This can be very important due to the presence of migratory birds coming from Russia and China and stay in winter months in the marshes of Al-Basra and consequently, AIV transportation to the other parts of the world.

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“…75,76,79 Most outbreaks occurred in provinces along the eastern Asian-Australian fl yway, along which migratory birds travel, fl ying over areas with densely populated poultry farms, live bird markets, rice farms, and free grazing ducks. 84,90,91 Infl uenza A H7N9 viruses have been isolated from chickens and pigeons in markets in some of the aff ected provinces, 79,80 and from poultry cages and faeces in some live poultry and bird markets in the provinces. 88…”

Section: Evidence For a Zoonotic Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging viral respiratory tract infections—environmental risk factors and transmission

Gautret

Gray

Charrel

et al. 2014

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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The past decade has seen the emergence of several novel viruses that cause respiratory tract infections in human beings, including Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia, an H7N9 influenza A virus in eastern China, a swine-like influenza H3N2 variant virus in the USA, and a human adenovirus 14p1 also in the USA. MERS-CoV and H7N9 viruses are still a major worldwide public health concern. The pathogenesis and mode of transmission of MERS-CoV and H7N9 influenza A virus are poorly understood, making it more difficult to implement intervention and preventive measures. A united and coordinated global response is needed to tackle emerging viruses that can cause fatal respiratory tract infections and to fill major gaps in the understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of these viruses.

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Mapping Avian Influenza Transmission Risk at the Interface of Domestic Poultry and Wild Birds

Cited by 54 publications

References 52 publications

The Landscape Epidemiology of Seasonal Clustering of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Domestic Poultry in Africa, Europe and Asia

The Landscape Epidemiology of Seasonal Clustering of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Domestic Poultry in Africa, Europe and Asia

Prevalence of AIV subtype H9 among poultry with respiratory signs in Iraq

Emerging viral respiratory tract infections—environmental risk factors and transmission

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