Mapping disruptive long-term scenarios using a participatory approach

Molinero-Parejo, Ramón; Benavente, Francisco Aguilera; Delgado, Montserrat Gómez; Soria-Lara, Julio A.

doi:10.1080/17445647.2021.1937726

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…However, future studies can explore the predictive capacity of regression models or machine learning algorithms that incorporate environmental variables (e.g., altitude, slope, and water availability) [33,55]. In addition, future studies can build nonpredictive spatial scenarios to support planning and adaptive management in facing dynamic changes in agriculture and fruit crop production in the future [56,57].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture and Temperate Fruit Crop Dynamics in South-Central Chile: Challenges for Fruit Crop Production in La Araucanía Region, Chile

Montenegro-Romero

Vergara-Fernández

Argandoña-Castro

et al. 2022

Land

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The expansion of agricultural, forest plantation, and urban areas is among the main drivers of worldwide land use/cover change. However, little is known about the changes in the extent of highly profitable crops in the temperate zones of South America and their association with other land use/cover changes, especially in south-central Chile, which has experienced massive changes in recent decades. In this context, we aimed to assess land use/cover and fruit crop area changes at the regional and county levels in the Araucanía region, Chile. Hence, the quantity and location of past and future changes were identified using cross-tabulation Markov chains and cellular automata. The results showed that agricultural land and meadows have decreased by 18% and 26%, respectively, between 1997 and 2013, mainly due to the expansion of forest plantations and urban areas. However, the fruit crop area increased by 645% between the years 2000 and 2019 and will continue increasing to 2033. These changes modified the relative weights of economic activities within the region, changing from cattle raising and marginal agriculture to more profitable activities such as fruit crops and forest plantations. Finally, this work shows a need to move toward the spatial monitoring of agriculture and fruit crops within the country.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture and Temperate Fruit Crop Dynamics in South-Central Chile: Challenges for Fruit Crop Production in La Araucanía Region, Chile

Montenegro-Romero

Vergara-Fernández

Argandoña-Castro

et al. 2022

Land

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“…As part of previous research within the TRANS‐URBAN project, three different future disruptive scenarios of urban land‐use change and transport were developed for the study area (see Molinero‐Parejo et al., 2021; Soria‐Lara et al., 2021 for further details). The main characteristics of these scenarios are summarized in Table 2.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These scenarios were quantified (quantity of change) and spatialized (allocated) in a workshop(Molinero- Parejo et al, 2021), and then converted into spatially explicit urban land-use maps by simulating with the land parcel cellular automata (LP-CA) model(Molinero-Parejo et al, 2023). The LP-CA model simulates five active land uses: Commerce and utilities, industrial, single-family residential, multifamily residential, and mixed.…”

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confidence: 99%

Adapting moving‐window metrics to vector datasets for the characterization and comparison of simulated urban scenarios

Molinero‐Parejo,

Aguilera‐Benavente,

Gómez‐Delgado

2024

Transactions in GIS

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Descriptive scenarios about the possible evolution of land use in our cities are essential instruments in urban planning. Although the simulation of these scenarios has enormous potential, further characterization is needed in order to be able to evaluate and compare them so as to provide more effective support for public policy. One of the most commonly used tools for assessing these scenarios is spatial moving‐window metrics, a useful mechanism for extracting accurate information from simulated land‐use maps on urban diversity and urban growth patterns. This article seeks to explore this question further and has two main aims. First, to develop and implement vSHEI and vLEI, two multiscale composition and configuration vector moving‐window metrics for calculating urban diversity and urban growth patterns. Second, to test these metrics using the spatially explicit simulation of three prospective scenarios in the Henares Corridor (Spain), comparing the results and analyzing how well the scenario narratives match their spatial configuration, as measured using vSHEI and vLEI. Via the implementation of vSHEI and vLEI, we obtained urban diversity and urban expansion values at a local level, offering more precise and more realistic, mappable information on the composition and configuration of urban land use than that provided by raster metrics or by vector Patch‐Matrix model metrics. We also used these metrics to test whether the simulated scenarios matched their description in the narrative storylines. Our results demonstrate the potential of vector moving‐window metrics for characterizing the urban patterns that might develop under different scenarios at the parcel level.

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“…The questionnaires were distributed via email, except for a few of them, which were made directly to real estate development experts present at a collaborative mapping work-shop held at the University of Alcala [51]. Respondents were not financially compensated for responding to the survey.…”

Section: Questionnairementioning

confidence: 99%

Real Estate Developers as Agents in the Simulation of Urban Sprawl

2022

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Urban expansion is one of the processes that generates the greatest impact on the distribution of land uses, leading to important territorial changes. Its evolution has become a highly relevant object of analysis and studies on the subject have gradually advanced from a focus on patterns of land use and cover, towards a more detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions between all the actors involved in these processes. Among the agents usually included as an active and decisive part of these dynamics are the real estate developers. This study aims to analyze these agents, identify their behavioral patterns, and categorize and better understand them. For this, a qualitative approach was employed, in which a structured questionnaire elaborated from the point of view of an expert was administrated to the real estate developers in the area of the Henares urban–industrial corridor, between Madrid and Guadalajara, where important processes of urban expansion have taken place. The information obtained from an interview with an expert and the questionnaire revealed important information about the work of real estate developers and will be of great help in the elaboration of an Agent-Based Model to simulate and analyze urban growth. This process is crucial to determine in a more empirical way the different decision rules that are necessary to develop this type of model.

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Mapping disruptive long-term scenarios using a participatory approach

Cited by 6 publications

References 31 publications

Agriculture and Temperate Fruit Crop Dynamics in South-Central Chile: Challenges for Fruit Crop Production in La Araucanía Region, Chile

Agriculture and Temperate Fruit Crop Dynamics in South-Central Chile: Challenges for Fruit Crop Production in La Araucanía Region, Chile

Adapting moving‐window metrics to vector datasets for the characterization and comparison of simulated urban scenarios

Real Estate Developers as Agents in the Simulation of Urban Sprawl

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