Mapping environmental suitability for anthrax reemergence in the Arctic

Stella, Elisa; Mari, Lorenzo; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Barbante, Carlo; Bertuzzo, Enrico

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2527

Cited by 4 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Our models predicted an increase in suitable environments in South America, sub-Saharan Africa, East Africa, Pakistan, Australia, India, East Asia, Southeast Asia and western Siberia. In addition to the work of Walsh (2018) and Stella (2021) and their current modelling scenario, our model predicted an increase in suitable environments in western Siberia, the Yamal Peninsula, Canada, Alaska, eastern Russia and northern Scandinavia.…”

Section: Bacillus Anthracis Risk Zones For Livestockmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Similar to Walsh (2018), Stella et al. (2021) applied Maxent (Phillips et al., 2006) in high‐latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. They found that anthrax's potential diffusion and emergence were related to environmental factors such as the soil‐temperature anomaly ( T ) and active layer permafrost thickness.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regarding anthrax, because of its global distribution, it has been reported that climate change might promote a northern expansion of the disease. Thus, anthrax has been listed as a ‘climate sensitive’ disease (Parkinson et al., 2014; Stella et al., 2021; Walsh, de Smalen & Mor, 2018). Recent studies have brought to attention the risks associated with climate change in the Arctic and the potential reemergence of bacteria and viruses in not only permafrost but also deep layers of sea ice (Bradley et al., 2005; Hedlund et al., 2014; Stella et al., 2021; Waits et al., 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recently, Assefa et al mapped the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ethiopia with an ensemble ecological niche model (Assefa et al, 2020). To date, three articles have modelled the broad-scale distribution of anthrax globally and at higher northern latitudes (Carlson et al, 2019;Stella et al, 2021;Walsh et al, 2018).…”

Section: Bacillus Anthracis Risk Zones For Livestockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…White-black symbols represent anthrax occurrence records ever-increasing demand to refine the known distribution of the disease. Thus, expanding on the previous work ofCarlson et al (2019),Walsh et al (2018) andStella et al (2021), this study redefined anthrax's potential global and circumpolar distribution by exploring the relationship between occurrence locations and environmental fac-…”

mentioning

confidence: 98%

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Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Deka

Vieira

Bower

2022

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a spore‐forming bacterium that primarily affects herbivorous livestock, wildlife and humans exposed to direct contact with infected animal carcasses or products. To date, there are a limited number of studies that have delineated the potential global distribution of anthrax, despite the importance of the disease from both an economic and public health standpoint. This study compiled occurrence data (n = 874) of confirmed human and animal cases from 1954 to 2021 in 94 countries. Using an ensemble ecological niche model framework, we developed updated maps of the global predicted ecological suitability of anthrax to measure relative risk at multiple scales of analysis, including a model for circumpolar regions. Additionally, we produced maps quantifying the disease transmission risk associated with anthrax to cattle, sheep and goat populations. Environmental suitability for B. anthracis globally is concentred throughout Eurasia, sub‐Saharan Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania. Suitable environments for B. anthracis at the circumpolar scale extend above the Arctic Circle into portions of Russia, Canada, Alaska and northern Scandinavia. Environmental factors driving B. anthracis suitability globally include vegetation, land surface temperature, soil characteristics, primary climate conditions and topography. At the circumpolar scale, suitability is influenced by soil factors, topography and the derived climate characteristics. The greatest risk to livestock is concentrated within the Indian subcontinent, Australia, Anatolia, the Caucasus region, Central Asia, the European Union, Argentina, Uruguay, China, the United States, Canada and East Africa. This study expands on previous work by providing enhanced knowledge of the potential spatial distribution of anthrax in the Southern Hemisphere, sub‐Saharan Africa, Asia and circumpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that these updated maps will provide pertinent information to guide disease control programs, inform policymakers and raise awareness at the global level to lessen morbidity and mortality among animals and humans located in environmentally suitable areas.

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Section: Bacillus Anthracis Risk Zones For Livestockmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Bacillus Anthracis Risk Zones For Livestockmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 98%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Deka

Vieira

Bower

2022

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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Focus on Arctic change: transdisciplinary research and communication

Sjöberg

Bouchard

Gartler

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Suitability of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) in the Black Sea basin through the scope of distribution modelling

Arede,

Allepuz,

Beltran-Alcrudo

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The Black Sea basin has a strategic geographical location bridging Asia and Europe and depends on traditional livestock practices. Anthrax, a zoonotic bacterial disease caused by Bacillus anthracis, poses a significant global threat impacting public health, food security, pastoralist communities, and national economies. The disease is endemic or sporadic in the Black Sea basin, however, the study of its distribution has seldom been addressed, despite its burden and the presence of historical B. anthracis burial sites in the region. The viability of B. anthracis in a particular region is going to be influenced by multiple environmental factors, such as soil composition, climate, vegetation, and host abundance. To characterize the potential distribution of B. anthracis in the Black Sea basin, and therefore, the potential for anthrax outbreaks, we applied an ecological niche modelling framework using the Maxent algorithm, analyzing multiple variable combinations, and proposing a novel approach for interpreting in-risk anthrax areas. Our findings underscored the importance of host abundance to the anthrax dynamics in the region. We identified anthrax-suitable areas spanning central and eastern Türkiye, Armenia, southern Georgia, southern Russia, Bulgaria, southern and eastern Romania, Hungary, Moldova, and southern Ukraine, which align with findings from previous global and regional studies on the potential suitability of anthrax. The insights gained from our research might facilitate the development of targeted interventions and policies to mitigate the spread of this disease in pastoralist communities in the Black Sea basin.

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Mapping environmental suitability for anthrax reemergence in the Arctic

Cited by 4 publications

References 39 publications

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Focus on Arctic change: transdisciplinary research and communication

Suitability of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) in the Black Sea basin through the scope of distribution modelling

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