Mapping Heat-Related Risks in Northern Jiangxi Province of China Based on Two Spatial Assessment Frameworks Approaches

Abstract

Heat-health risk is a growing concern in many regions of China due to the more frequent occurrence of extremely hot weather. Spatial indexes based on various heat assessment frameworks can be used for the assessment of heat risks. In this study, we adopted two approaches—Crichton’s risk triangle and heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-health risks in the Northern Jiangxi Province of China, by using remote sensing and socio-economic data. The Geographical Information System (GIS) overlay and principal component analysis (PCA) were separately used in two frameworks to integrate parameters. The results show that the most densely populated community in the suburbs, instead of city centers, are exposed to the highest heat risk. A comparison of two heat assessment mapping indicates that the distribution of HVI highlights the vulnerability differences between census tracts. In contrast, the heat risk index of Crichton’s risk triangle has a prominent representation for regions with high risks. The stepwise multiple linear regression zero-order correlation coefficient between HVI and outdoor workers is 0.715, highlighting the vulnerability of this particular group. Spearman’s rho nonparametric correlation and the mean test reveals that heat risk index is strongly correlated with HVI in most of the main urban regions in the study area, with a significantly lower value than the latter. The analysis of variance shows that the distribution of HVI exhibits greater variety across urban regions than that of heat risk index. Our research provides new insight into heat risk assessment for further study of heat health risk in developing countries.

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