Marital and Reproductive Behavior in Italy After 1995: Bridging the Gap with Western Europe?

Abstract

Despite a delay of 20–25 years, when it comes to cohabitation, Italy has now begun to resemble other Western countries. In addition, the increase in legal separations has accelerated since 1995, although their number still remains far from that observed in countries such as the USA, the UK, and France. Finally, Italy’s fertility decline has come to a halt: the cohort of women born in the early 1970s will likely have the same TFR as those born in the mid-1960s (around 1.55). Moreover, in the Centre–North areas, period TFR rose from 1.1 in 1995 to 1.35 children per woman 10 years later. The territorial diffusion of cohabitation, legal separation, out-of-wedlock births, and fertility recovery overlaps closely with that of the decline in births during the first half of the twentieth century. A similar geographical pattern has been observed for the diffusion of school enrolment, industrialization, secularization, and (during the last 20 years) foreign immigration.Malgré un retard de 20 à 25 ans, en matière de cohabitation l’Italie commence à présent à ressembler aux autres pays occidentaux. De plus, la hausse des séparations légales s’est accélérée depuis 1995, bien que leur niveau demeure encore bien en-deçà de celui qui est observé dans des pays tels que les Etats-Unis d’Amérique, le Royaume-Uni, et la France. Finalement, la fécondité a cessé de baisser en Italie: la cohorte des femmes nées au début des années 1970 aura selon toute vraisemblance le même indice synthétique de fécondité que celle des femmes nées au milieu des années 60 (environ 1,55). De plus, dans les régions du centre-nord, l’indice synthétique de fécondité est passé de 1,1 enfant par femme en 1995 à 1,35 dix ans plus tard. La diffusion territoriale de la cohabitation, des séparations légales, des naissances hors mariage et du rattrapage de la fécondité recouvre de façon étroite celle de la baisse des naissances au cours de la première moitié du vingtième siècle. Le même schéma géographique est observé dans la diffusion de la scolarisation, de l’industrialisation, de la sécularisation et (pendant les 20 dernières années) de l’immigration en provenance de l’étranger

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