Maritime accident prevention strategy formulation from a human factor perspective using Bayesian Networks and TOPSIS

Fan, Shiqi; Zhang, Jinfen; Blanco‐Davis, Eduardo; Yang, Zaili; Yan, Xinping

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.107544

Cited by 106 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…This system could be integrated with any automatic control system (ACS). This can be confirmed by the modern approaches of ACS equipment manufacturers to reduce the number of accidents in power plants: these include dispatcher's control with the help of a remote group of experts and the development of systems employing artificial intelligence elements [5][6][7]. Designing a model-oriented decision support system combines both modern approaches to reducing accidents.…”

Section: An Improvement Of the Control System Implied The Integration Of A Modeling Unit And A Decision Support Unit Into Its Structure Tmentioning

confidence: 88%

Improving the ship's power plant automatic control system by using a model-oriented decision support system in order to reduce accident rate under the transitional and dynamic modes of operation

Voytetsky

Voytetskaya

Vyshnevskyi

et al. 2021

EEJET

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This paper proposes a method to improve the performance of a ship's power plant by reducing accidents within it under transitional operating modes. The method is based on decreasing the number of service personnel errors by using a model-oriented decision support system. In order to implement the proposed method, the structure of the system of automatic control of the ship's power plant has been improved. Such an improvement of the control system implied the integration of a modeling unit and a decision support unit into its structure. The modeling unit makes it possible to predict values of the controlled parameters under a transition mode of operation before they actually appear in the system as a result of the operator's actions. A mathematical model of the automatic control system under transitional operating modes has been built for this unit. In order to implement the decision support unit, a method has been devised to formalize the task of managing the power plant under transitional operating modes. The method essentially involves modeling a transitional operating regime, followed by an evaluation of the results based on regulatory requirements and an empirical criterion for assessing the quality of enabling the diesel generators to work in parallel. In addition, a method has been developed for the decision support unit to reduce the accident rate and improve performance with the help of a mathematical apparatus of fuzzy inference, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy sets. Transitional operating regimes resulting from actual erroneous operator actions during ship flights were investigated. As a result of using the proposed system, the power plant performance increases

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Section: An Improvement Of the Control System Implied The Integration Of A Modeling Unit And A Decision Support Unit Into Its Structure Tmentioning

confidence: 88%

Improving the ship's power plant automatic control system by using a model-oriented decision support system in order to reduce accident rate under the transitional and dynamic modes of operation

Voytetsky

Voytetskaya

Vyshnevskyi

et al. 2021

EEJET

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…, I . Subsequently, the extracted individual BPA functions as in equation ( 12) are first discounted with Shafer's discounting by taking P n i and R into equation (3). e discounted individual BPA functions can be represented as…”

Section: Fusion Of Information At the Individual Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(3) n p (3) n r (3) n p (3) Mathematical Problems in Engineering synthetically fused to derive the final evaluation result, which cannot be decided by a single criterion. In this process, any criterion cannot decide the evaluation result of MRES.…”

Section: Criterionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interval value of probability ([l (k) n , u (k) n ]) L (1) n [l (1) n , u (1) n ] L (2) n [l (2) n , u (2) n ] L (3) n [l (3) n , u (3) Data Availability e data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.…”

Section: Dmmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…MCGDM is an indispensable branch of modern decisionmaking theory. e representative methods of MCDM, such as multiobjective programming, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), ELimination Et Choice Translating REality (ELECTRE), and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS), have been applied in solving diversified practical MCDM problems [3][4][5][6][7][8]. As decision-making problems are getting more complicated, researchers have studied MCDM from the perspectives of utility achievement, weight determination, consistency measurement, fuzziness information, and so on [9][10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multiple Criteria Group Decision-Making Method with Dempster–Shafer Theory and Probabilistic Linguistic Term Sets

Wang

2020

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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The motivation of this study is to propose a novel multiple criteria group decision-making (MCDGM) method based on Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) and probabilistic linguistic term sets (PLTSs) to handle the distinctions between compensatory information at the criterion level and noncompensatory information at the individual level in the process of information fusion. Initially, the information at the individual level is extracted by BPA functions. Then, they are fused with DST considering ignorance and DMs’ reliabilities. Next, the obtained BPA functions are transformed into interval-valued PLTSs with the assistance of intermediate belief and plausibility. Subsequently, the interval-valued PLTSs are converted into standard PLTSs. After normalization, the holistic PLTS is obtained with weighted addition operation and the round function is applied to determine the ultimate evaluation result. Finally, a case simulation study of evaluating the marine ranching ecological security is presented to verify and improve the validity and feasibility of the proposed method and algorithm in practical application. The proposed method and its relevant algorithm are both innovative combination of DST and PLTSs from the perspective of compensatory and noncompensatory features of information, which provides a new angle of view for the development of probabilistic preference theory and is beneficial to apply probabilistic preference theory in practice.

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Mental Traps Behind Maritime Disasters

Água

Frias

Simões-Marques

2021

Advances in Human Factors and System Interactions

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Maritime accident prevention strategy formulation from a human factor perspective using Bayesian Networks and TOPSIS

Abstract: The version presented here may differ from the published version or from the version of the record. Please see the repository URL above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription.

Cited by 106 publications

References 50 publications

Improving the ship's power plant automatic control system by using a model-oriented decision support system in order to reduce accident rate under the transitional and dynamic modes of operation

Improving the ship's power plant automatic control system by using a model-oriented decision support system in order to reduce accident rate under the transitional and dynamic modes of operation

Multiple Criteria Group Decision-Making Method with Dempster–Shafer Theory and Probabilistic Linguistic Term Sets

Mental Traps Behind Maritime Disasters

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