Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

Abstract

a b s t r a c tMany methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.

A method for detecting possible near miss ship collisions from AIS data

“…While AIS data quality has been mediocre in its early implementation years (Graveson, 2004), the quality has improved significantly in recent years (Felski and Jaskolski, 2013;Felski et al, 2015), and further improvements are possible with proper antenna installation (Last et al, 2015). AIS data has been used for diverse purposes such as studying collision avoidance manoeuvers (Mou et al, 2010), delineating empirical ship domains (Hansen et al, 2013;Krzysztof and Gucma, 2012), studying navigational traffic patterns (Xiao et al, 2015), accident investigation , many maritime risk analysis methods Özbaş, 2013;Goerlandt and Montewka, 2015b;Mazaheri et al, 2014;Gucma et al, 2012) and models predicting ship performance in ice .…”

“…Such methods aim to identify of areas of high accident risk and sometimes include mechanisms to assess the effect of incorporating risk control options. A large number of maritime risk analysis applications have been presented in the literature, see Li et al (2012), Özbaş (2013), Mazaheri et al (2014) and Goerlandt and Montewka (2015b) for reviews focusing on different aspects of this literature. Furthermore, various frameworks for assessing and managing maritime transportation risk have been proposed, e.g.…”

A Theoretical Risk Management Framework for Vessels Operating Near Offshore Wind Farms

“…Review texts range from complete books, to comparison and review papers (Goerlandt and Montewka 2015;Amdahl et al 2013;Li et al 2012;Pedersen 2010;Wang et al 2002;Soares and Teixeira 2001). It is therefore unfeasible, and redundant, to have a detailed discussion of the various risk assessment models in this report.…”

Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment

“…Without assessing the significance of the uncertainty in the risk analysis process, the reliability of the risk analysis cannot be examined, which may produce risk control measures in low effect or in vain [14,15]. In fact, the uncertainty analysis is required to be carried out in the process of FSA by revised guidelines for FSA for use in the International Maritime Organization (IMO) rule-making process [1].…”