Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment

Sun, Molin; Zheng, Zhongyi; Liu, Gang

doi:10.3390/su10020321

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The F-N curve is expressed numerically by converting the number of disasters that can cause harm to many people per year. The F-N curve can be classified into three regions (i.e., acceptable region, as low as reasonably practical (ALARP), and unacceptable region), and different standards exist for different countries [34,35]. In this study, various international criteria were applied to determine the societal risk.…”

Section: Of 13mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment Method Combining Independent Protection Layers (IPL) of Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) and RISKCURVES Software: Case Study of Hydrogen Refueling Stations in Urban Areas

et al. 2021

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The commercialization of eco-friendly hydrogen vehicles has elicited attempts to expand hydrogen refueling stations in urban areas; however, safety measures to reduce the risk of jet fires have not been established. The RISKCURVES software was used to evaluate the individual and societal risks of hydrogen refueling stations in urban areas, and the F–N (Frequency–Number of fatalities) curve was used to compare whether the safety measures satisfied international standards. From the results of the analysis, it was found that there is a risk of explosion in the expansion of hydrogen refueling stations in urban areas, and safety measures should be considered. To lower the risk of hydrogen refueling stations, this study applied the passive and active independent protection layers (IPLs) of LOPA (Layer of Protection Analysis) and confirmed that these measures significantly reduced societal risk as well as individual risk and met international standards. In particular, such measures could effectively reduce the impact of jet fire in dispensers and tube trailers that had a high risk. Measures employing both IPL types were efficient in meeting international standard criteria; however, passive IPLs were found to have a greater risk reduction effect than active IPLs. The combination of RISKCURVES and LOPA is an appropriate risk assessment method that can reduce work time and mitigate risks through protective measures compared to existing risk assessment methods. This method can be applied to risk assessment and risk mitigation not only for hydrogen facilities, but also for hazardous materials with high fire or explosion risk.

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Section: Of 13mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment Method Combining Independent Protection Layers (IPL) of Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) and RISKCURVES Software: Case Study of Hydrogen Refueling Stations in Urban Areas

et al. 2021

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“…The uncertainty analysis generates an area plot for a certain level of confidence in the F-N curve with upper (95%) and lower (5%) bounds of Societal Risk instead of only one mean F-N curve. The methodology to generate these uncertainty bounds is based on Sun et al [38] described in Appendix D. Detailed results are summarized below:…”

Section: Societal Risk Assessment and Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Societal Risk Assessment and Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology

et al. 2021

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Given that existing fire risk models often ignore human and organizational errors (HOEs) ultimately leading to underestimation of risks by as much as 80%, this study employs a technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) methodology to address knowledge gaps in current state-of-the-art probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for high-rise residential buildings with the following goals: (1) Develop an improved PRA methodology to address concerns that deterministic, fire engineering approaches significantly underestimate safety levels that lead to inaccurate fire safety levels. (2) Enhance existing fire safety verification methods by incorporating probabilistic risk approach and HOEs for (i) a more inclusive view of risk, and (ii) to overcome the deterministic nature of current verification methods. (3) Perform comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to address uncertainties in numerical estimates used in fault tree/event trees, Bayesian network and system dynamics and their propagation in a probabilistic model. (4) Quantification of human and organizational risks for high-rise residential buildings which contributes towards a policy agenda in the direction of a sustainable, risk-based regulatory regime. This research contributes to the development of the next-generation building codes and risk assessment methodologies.

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“…Another problem in risk evaluation is risk representation [28,29]. IMO defines risk as a combination of two risk parameters [30], as shown in Equation ( 1):…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Improved Failure Risk Assessment Method for Bilge System of the Large Luxury Cruise Ship under Fire Accident Conditions

Liu

Guo

et al. 2021

JMSE

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This paper develops an improved failure risk assessment method and discusses the risk control measures for a large luxury cruise ship’s bilge system under fire accident conditions. The proposed method incorporates an expert weight calculation model and a risk coefficient calculation model. The expert weight calculation model considers the differences in experts’ expertise levels (i.e., qualification level, decision-making capacity, and decision-making preference). Further, the method integrates the evaluations resulting from fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and extended fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) of different experts. The risk coefficient (RC) calculation model utilizes a three-dimensional continuous matrix, serving to determine the risk factors’ ratings. The influences of the expert weight and RC calculation models on the proposed method’s performance are studied through a sensitivity analysis. The work demonstrates that the proposed method minimizes the issues encountered when using conventional methods for determining risk ratings. Finally, the results of an empirical study comprising ten experts evaluating the VISTA cruise ship’s bilge system prove the applicability of the proposed method and offer practical design guidelines to meet the regulations for Safe Return to Port (SRtP).

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Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment

Cited by 8 publications

References 34 publications

Risk Assessment Method Combining Independent Protection Layers (IPL) of Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) and RISKCURVES Software: Case Study of Hydrogen Refueling Stations in Urban Areas

Risk Assessment Method Combining Independent Protection Layers (IPL) of Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) and RISKCURVES Software: Case Study of Hydrogen Refueling Stations in Urban Areas

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology

An Improved Failure Risk Assessment Method for Bilge System of the Large Luxury Cruise Ship under Fire Accident Conditions

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