Markets, mis‐direction and motives: A factual analysis of hoarding and speculation in southern Murray–Darling Basin water markets

Abstract

There is a long history of concern about speculation in water markets, and potential adverse impacts on agricultural water users. However, applications of traditional analysis into price increase drivers in water markets are challenging due to data limitations. To address this, we use speculation theory, most notably Hirshleifer's four fundamentals for speculative trade, to examine whether speculation or hoarding price increase drivers are evident in Australia's largest water market, the southern Murray-Darling Basin. While speculation is likely, and with good reason given the gains possible, we find no evidence of hoarding behaviour in market price or volume trends. It is more plausible that agricultural sectorsnotably horticultural usershave driven price increases given their requirements to access water at any cost during periods of low supply. These findings conform to theoretical expectations and help to inform badly needed insights into water market fundamentals required for future analysis. Overall, calls for stricter market controls on non-agricultural water users are not supported by our findings. However, greater transparency in water market and broker activity, arising from substantial improvements in the underlying data and trade regulations associated with water markets, would be an ideal outcome from any public police extension.

Debunking Murray‐Darling Basin water trade myths

“…For example, market depth (Brooks et al, 2009); price clustering (Brooks et al, 2013; Zuo et al, 2014); and price leadership (Brooks & Harris, 2014). Overall, little evidence of hoarding and speculation in MDB water markets has been found (Loch et al, 2021).…”

From the 1990s climate change has decreased cool season catchment precipitation reducing river heights in Australia’s southern Murray-Darling Basin

“…2 c,d; Table 4 ). Moreover, there has been no overallocation or hoarding of water found in the southern MDB 24 . In a different southern MDB catchment study of the Millennium Drought 1997–2008, factors for a disproportionate reduction in rainfall run-off were reduced mean annual rainfall, less interannual variability of rainfall, changed seasonality of rainfall and lastly increased potential evaporation 25 .…”