Mass balance evolution of Martial Este Glacier, Tierra del Fuego (Argentina) for the period 1960–2099

Abstract

Abstract. The Martial Este Glacier in southern Tierra del Fuego was studied in order to estimate the surface mass balance from 1960 until 2099. For this reason a degree-day model was calibrated. Air temperature and precipitation data obtained from 3 weather stations as well as glaciological measurements were applied. The model was driven using a vertical air temperature gradient of 0.69 K/100 m, a degreeday factor for snow of 4.7 mm w.e. K −1 day −1 , a degree-day factor for ice of 9.4 mm w.e. K −1 day −1 and a precipitation gradient of 22%/100 m. For the purpose of surface mass balance reconstruction for the time period 1960 until 2006 a winter vertical air temperature gradient of 0.57 K/100 m and a summer vertical air temperature gradient of 0.71 K/100 m were added as well as a digital terrain model. The key finding is an almost continuous negative mass balance of −772 mm w.e. a −1 throughout this period. While the calculation of the mass balance for the period 1960-2006 is based on instrumental records, the mass balance for the years 2007 until 2099 was estimated based on the IPCC SRES A2-scenario. To accomplish this estimation, the dataset of the global climate model HadCM3 was statistically downscaled to fit local conditions at Martial Este Glacier. Subsequently, the downscaled air temperature and precipitation were applied to a volume-area scaling glacier change model. Findings reveal an enduring deglaciation resulting in a surface area reduction of nearly 93% until 2099. This implicates that the Martial Este Glacier might be melted off at the beginning of the 22nd century.

The Andes Cordillera. Part III: glacier surface mass balance and contribution to sea level rise (1979–2014)

“…This knowledge gap has been improved by area and mass balance analyses and simulations performed for the Patagonia icefields (Rignot et al , ; Davies and Glasser, ; Willis et al , , ; Schaefer et al , , ) and for each individual glacier of the Andes Cordillera (Marzeion et al , ). Kaser et al (), Francou et al (), Casassa et al (), Pellicciotti et al (), Vuille et al (), Buttstadt et al (), Rabatel et al (, ), Hirabayashi et al (), MacDonell et al (), and Mernild et al () performed similar assessments for individual glaciers or glacier complexes along the Andes Cordillera. Despite these efforts, the influence of air temperature and precipitation changes on SMB and hydrological conditions of the approximately 20 000 Andes Cordillera glaciers identified by Radić et al () remain largely unaddressed.…”

Modeling modern glacier response to climate changes along the Andes Cordillera: A multiscale review

“…Buttstädt et al . [] obtained future climatic scenarios until the year 2099 from statistically downscaled outputs from the Third UK Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere global climate model (HadCM3). This climate model output represented the worst‐case scenario of the IPCC's fourth assessment on climate change (A2) [ IPCC , ].…”

“…However, we consider that use of downscaling for future projections must be taken with caution. As seen in our analysis of several of the reviewed studies [e.g., Stuefer et al ., ; Buttstädt et al ., ], short and discontinuous glacier mass balance measurements limit the use of models, specifically empirically based models such as TI, because they have to rely on short‐term calibration periods in order to effectively simulate mass balance trends. Short calibration periods may be a double‐edged sword.…”

Six Decades (1958–2018) of Geodetic Glacier Mass Balance in Monte San Lorenzo, Patagonian Andes

“…In general terms, the understanding of glacier mass budget trends in southern Patagonia do not rely on long or numerous glaciological records. Quite the opposite, merely Martial Este (2001-ongoing;Strelin and Iturraspe, 2007;Buttstädt et al, 2009; see also WGMS, 2017) and Glaciar de los Tres (Popovnin et al, 1999, resumed in 2013 by the Instituto Argentino de Nivología y Glaciología of Argentina) have had glaciological mass balance programs recently. At a broader scale, glacier volume and mass changes been surveyed by means of the geodetic mass balance method (Rivera et al, 2007;Willis et al, 2012;Falaschi et al, 2017;Foresta et al, 2018;Braun et al, 2019;Dussaillant et al, 2019), which retrieves glacier elevation and volume changes by differencing a series of multi-temporal, often multi-sourced DEMs (Cogley, 2009).…”