Mathematical epidemiologic and simulation modelling of first wave COVID-19 in Malaysia

Ariffin, Muhammad Rezal Kamel; Gopal, Kathiresan; Krishnarajah, Isthrinayagy; Ilias, Iszuanie Syafidza Che; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Arasan, Jayanthi; Rahman, Nur Haizum Abd; Dom, Nur Sumirah Mohd; Sham, Noraishah Mohammad

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-99541-0

Cited by 13 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Additionally, different disease have different SEIR model like the SEIR model for Covid-19 [1] and H1N1 [7]. SEIR models are also tailored to specific region or location of the outbreak [13,14].…”

Section: Infectious Disease Transmission and Controlmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Vaccine Distribution Using Sine Cosine Algorithm with Mutation

Saifulezam

Mohamad

Aziz

2022

JETAP

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Vaccination is the best approach in curbing the spread of a pandemic. However, during pandemic one of the challenge is limited number of vaccine due to limited manufacturing capacity and high demand. Therefore, optimal vaccine distribution is needed to ensure maximum effectiveness in decreasing the total infections in the population. In this paper, the vaccine distribution is optimized using sine cosine algorithm improved with mutation (SCAmut). The SEIR model of H1N1 pandemic in 2009 is used as the case problem here. The effectiveness of SCAmut vaccine deployment is studied using two factors, which are vaccine coverage percentage and vaccine releasing time. The algorithm's result is compared with three traditional methods and original SCA without mutation. The findings suggested that the proposed SCAmut is able to provide more effective vaccination distributions better than the three traditional methods and also the original SCA.

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Section: Infectious Disease Transmission and Controlmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Vaccine Distribution Using Sine Cosine Algorithm with Mutation

Saifulezam

Mohamad

Aziz

2022

JETAP

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“…The incubation period of COVID-19 is generally between 2 days to 14 days (Anggriani and Beay 2022 ; Ariffin et al. 2021 ), or longer with 5 days on average (Ariffin et al. 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 2021 ), or longer with 5 days on average (Ariffin et al. 2021 ). It has been reported that presymptomatic transmission contributes majorly to the spread of COVID-19 (Alleman et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination

et al. 2023

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This paper is concerned with the formulation and analysis of an epidemic model of COVID-19 governed by an eight-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, by taking into account the first dose and the second dose of vaccinated individuals in the population. The developed model is analyzed and the threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number is obtained. We investigate the equilibrium stability of the system, and the COVID-free equilibrium is said to be locally asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number is less than unity, and unstable otherwise. Using the least-squares method, the model is calibrated based on the cumulative number of COVID-19 reported cases and available information about the mass vaccine administration in Malaysia between the 24th of February 2021 and February 2022. Following the model fitting and estimation of the parameter values, a global sensitivity analysis was performed by using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) to determine the most influential parameters on the threshold quantities. The result shows that the effective transmission rate , the rate of first vaccine dose , the second dose vaccination rate and the recovery rate due to the second dose of vaccination are the most influential of all the model parameters. We further investigate the impact of these parameters by performing a numerical simulation on the developed COVID-19 model. The result of the study shows that adhering to the preventive measures has a huge impact on reducing the spread of the disease in the population. Particularly, an increase in both the first and second dose vaccination rates reduces the number of infected individuals, thus reducing the disease burden in the population.

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“…The suggested model successfully models and forecasts the virus's transmission in communities. In Malaysia,Ariffin et al (2021) assessed the predictive capability of the SIR model on the trajectory of COVID-19. Their findings demonstrated that the simulated trend could effectively replicate the actual count and retain the actual spikes.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Susceptible-Infected-Removed Model with Vital Dynamics for COVID-19 Outbreak in Malaysia

Teoh

Hamdan

Hasan

et al. 2022

JCRINN

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In late 2019, the unique severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, first emerged in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and quickly spread throughout the world. Until June 30, 2022, a total of 4,566,055 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Malaysia, with 35,765 deaths and 4,500,856 recovered cases. This study aims to generalise a deterministic SIR model with vital dynamics for understanding the proliferation of infectious diseases. The SIR model with vital dynamics is more realistic in mimicking reality than the basic SIR model because it can determine the dynamic behaviours of COVID-19 over a more extended period. The SIR model utilises vital dynamics with unequal birth and death rates. Furthermore, the SIR model with vital dynamics is rescaled with the total time-varying population and analysed according to its epidemic condition. The results indicated that the number of infected individuals would peak about 10 - 15 days and reach their steady state about 25 - 60 days. The findings of this research may help policymakers establish, plan, and implement effective COVID-19 pandemic response strategies.

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Mathematical epidemiologic and simulation modelling of first wave COVID-19 in Malaysia

Cited by 13 publications

References 37 publications

Optimizing Vaccine Distribution Using Sine Cosine Algorithm with Mutation

Optimizing Vaccine Distribution Using Sine Cosine Algorithm with Mutation

Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination

Application of Susceptible-Infected-Removed Model with Vital Dynamics for COVID-19 Outbreak in Malaysia

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