Mathematical Model as a Tool for the Control of Vector-Borne Diseases: Wolbachia Example

Ndii, Meksianis Z.; Wiraningsih, Eti Dwi; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, A. K.

doi:10.5772/intechopen.79754

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Model 2 is a deterministic compartmental model defined by a set of coupled differential equations. The use of deterministic compartment models have a long history in the field of infectious disease epidemiology (Kermack and McKendrick, 1927;Brauer, 2017;Giordano et al, 2020), and can be justified by asymptotic considerations in a large-population limit (Dadlani et al, 2020;Ndii and Supriatna, 2017). Because the process model of Model 2 is deterministic, the parameter estimation problem for Model 2 reduces to a least squares calculation when combined with a Gaussian measurement model (see Sec.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti

Wheeler¹,

Rosengart²,

Jiang³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. As a case study, we consider the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We study three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We assess previous methods used for fitting and evaluating these models, and we develop data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches to diagnosis of model misspecification, development of alternative models, and computational improvements in optimization, in the context of likelihood-based inference on nonlinear dynamic systems. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti

Wheeler¹,

Rosengart²,

Jiang³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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show abstract

“…The current proposed strategies are by the use of vaccine and Wolbachia bacterium. Around 86% of dengue reduction can be obtained by the use of Wolbachia bacterium in particular if it is implemented in regions with low to moderate transmission level [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. The use of vaccine can reduce the number of dengue cases up to 80% depending on individual ages and status (seronegative or seropositive) and the transmission level in the regions [13,14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the Use of Vaccine and Wolbachia on Dengue Transmission Dynamics

Ndii

2020

TropicalMed

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The use of vaccine and Wolbachia has been proposed as strategies against dengue. Research showed that the Wolbachia intervention is highly effective in areas with low to moderate transmission levels. On the other hand, the use of vaccine is strongly effective when it is implemented on seropositive individuals and areas with high transmission levels. The question that arises is could the combination of both strategies result in higher reduction in the number of dengue cases? This paper seeks to answer the aforementioned question by the use of a mathematical model. A deterministic model in the presence of vaccine and Wolbachia has been developed and analysed. Numerical simulations were presented and public health implications were discussed. The results showed that the performance of Wolbachia in reducing the number of dengue cases is better than that of vaccination if the vaccine efficacy is low, otherwise, the use of vaccine is sufficient to reduce dengue incidence and hence the combination of Wolbachia and vaccine is not necessary.

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A Differential Mathematical Model for Experiments to Determine the Efficacy of Treatments Against the Bean Weevil

Cârdei¹,

Chireceanu

2022

Wseas Transactions on Biology and Biomedicine

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The article presents a mathematical model for experiments evaluating the effectiveness of diatomaceous earth treatments against the bean weevil, Acanthoscelides obtectus. The proposed mathematical model is of the differential type, inspired by the category of prey-predator models. The system of equations is nonlinear and is solved numerically. A systemic characterization of the bean weevil treatment process is used to describe the model, which uses three functions of time: the number of beans, the pest population, and the amount of diatomaceous earth. The three functions offer users four applications: forecasting, control, formulation of treatment efficacy estimators, and simulation of different types of pest control. The model is built for closed (isolated) experiments typical of laboratories, but this feature makes it extensible to other treatments to combat bean weevils in closed spaces characteristic of the storage of beans in silos.

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Mathematical Model as a Tool for the Control of Vector-Borne Diseases: Wolbachia Example

Cited by 3 publications

References 57 publications

Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti

Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti

Modelling the Use of Vaccine and Wolbachia on Dengue Transmission Dynamics

A Differential Mathematical Model for Experiments to Determine the Efficacy of Treatments Against the Bean Weevil

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