2020
DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed5040184
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Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens

Abstract: Preparation for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is often predicated on beliefs that we will be able to understand the epidemiological nature of an outbreak early into its inception. However, since many rare emerging diseases exhibit different epidemiological behaviors from outbreak to outbreak, early and accurate estimation of the epidemiological situation may not be straightforward in all cases. Previous studies have proposed considering the role of active asymptomatic infections co-emerging and co-… Show more

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“…But this analysis does not take into account the lower efficacy of the Oxford vaccine against asymptomatic or non-primary symptomatic infection. The role of disease transmission by asymptomatic cases is a relatively neglected question in epidemiology (Chisholm et al, 2018; Siewe, Greening, & Fefferman, 2020). To give a conservative estimate of the impact of this on transmission, we add the small number of non-primary symptomatics into the asymptomatic category and assume that both have an infectivity that is 0.35 of the value for symptomatics (see above).…”
Section: Models and Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…But this analysis does not take into account the lower efficacy of the Oxford vaccine against asymptomatic or non-primary symptomatic infection. The role of disease transmission by asymptomatic cases is a relatively neglected question in epidemiology (Chisholm et al, 2018; Siewe, Greening, & Fefferman, 2020). To give a conservative estimate of the impact of this on transmission, we add the small number of non-primary symptomatics into the asymptomatic category and assume that both have an infectivity that is 0.35 of the value for symptomatics (see above).…”
Section: Models and Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%