Mathematical Modeling of Coronavirus Reproduction Rate with Policy and Behavioral Effects

Anzum, Rabeya; Islam, Md. Zahidul

doi:10.1101/2020.06.16.20133330

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…We assume that the control action u ( t ) taken by the decision-maker (the government or possibly a more local decision-maker) has a linear effect on the transmission virus rate. Additionally, the effectiveness of this action is assumed to undergo a non-controllable drift or attenuation effect due to the observed fact that people tend to relax their effort over time ( 18 , 19 ), hence the presence of the attenuation factor a ( t ) yields:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Health and Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Epidemic

Lasaulce

Zhang

Varma

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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Various measures have been taken in different countries to mitigate the Covid-19 epidemic. But, throughout the world, many citizens don't understand well how these measures are taken and even question the decisions taken by their government. Should the measures be more (or less) restrictive? Are they taken for a too long (or too short) period of time? To provide some quantitative elements of response to these questions, we consider the well-known SEIR model for the Covid-19 epidemic propagation and propose a pragmatic model of the government decision-making operation. Although simple and obviously improvable, the proposed model allows us to study the tradeoff between health and economic aspects in a pragmatic and insightful way. Assuming a given number of phases for the epidemic (namely, 4 in this paper) and a desired tradeoff between health and economic aspects, it is then possible to determine the optimal duration of each phase and the optimal severity level (i.e., the target transmission rate) for each of them. The numerical analysis is performed for the case of France but the adopted approach can be applied to any country. One of the takeaway messages of this analysis is that being able to implement the optimal 4−phase epidemic management strategy in France would have led to 1.05 million of infected people and a GDP loss of 231 billions € instead of 6.88 millions of infected and a loss of 241 billions €. This indicates that, seen from the proposed model perspective, the effectively implemented epidemic management strategy is good economically, whereas substantial improvements might have been obtained in terms of health impact. Our analysis indicates that the lockdown/severe phase should have been more severe but shorter, and the adjustment phase occurred earlier. Due to the natural tendency of people to deviate from the official rules, updating measures every month over the whole epidemic episode seems to be more appropriate.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Health and Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Epidemic

Lasaulce

Zhang

Varma

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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“…Hence, mathematical modelling that adopts a specific approach to disease tracking and develops effective solutions for control is urgently required [20]. With an increasing number of models being built to track and forecast the spread of a disease, along with significant choices being made on the basis of the findings of these studies, mathematical modelling has played a prominent and crucial role in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic [21]. A proliferation of models, many of which differ considerably in their forecasts, have been followed by questions regarding the validity of modelled studies and whether and to what extent conclusions may be believed.…”

Section: Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A large number of new mathematical models for the spread of COVID-19 have been developed [22]. For example, analytical data accessed through mathematical modelling indicate that the United States and Italy are in the third stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, whilst India is in the second stage [21]. Amongst the proposed modelling methods is the closure method, which has been an effective model for limiting the spread of infection, as shown in Figure 7 [23].…”

Section: Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of Mathematical Modelling Techniques with Applications in Biosciences

2022

ijcsm

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Modelling can provide intellectual frameworks that are necessary to translate data into knowledge. Mathematical modelling has played an important role in many applications, such as ecology, genetics, engineering, psychology, sociology, physics and computer science, in recent years. This study focused on reviewing mathematical modelling and its applications to biological systems by tracing many metabolic activities of cellular interactions on the one hand and between the spread of epidemics and population growth on the other hand. Various mathematical equations have played fundamental roles in the formation of these systems for model development procedures by describing them mathematically and establishing relationships that characterise the dynamics of a biological phenomenon. Consequently, the creation of new mathematical representations and simulation algorithms is important to the success of biological modelling initiatives. Finally, the optimisation approach performs its primary role in directing and controlling interactions by adjusting the parameters that provide the best possible result for the system

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“…Hu et al 17 using modeling techniques access the risk of COVID transmission in train passengers. Anzum and Islam 18 have given a mathematical modeling approach for the production rate of COVID with the effect of policies and behaviors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and forecasting the total number of cases and deaths due to pandemic

Khan

Arshad

Azam

et al. 2021

Journal of Medical Virology

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The COVID-19 pandemic has appeared as the predominant disease of the 21st century at the end of 2019 and was a drastic start with thousands of casualties and the COVID-19 victims in 2020. Due to the drastic effect, COVID-19 scientists are trying to work on pandemic diseases and Governments are interested in the development of methodologies that will minimize the losses and speed up the process of cure by providing vaccines and treatment for such pandemics. The development of a new vaccine for any pandemic requires long in vitro and in vivo trials to use. Thus the strategies require understanding how the pandemic is spreading in terms of affected cases and casualties occurring from this disease, here we developed a forecasting model that can predict the no of cases and deaths due to pandemic and that can help the researcher, government, and other stakeholders to devise their strategies so that the damages can be minimized.This model can also be used for the judicial distribution of resources as it provides the estimates of the number of casualties and number of deaths with high accuracy, Government and policymakers on the basis of forecasted value can plan in a better way. The model efficiency is discussed on the basis of the available dataset of John Hopkins University repository in the period when the disease was first reported in the six countries till the mid of May 2020, the model was developed on the basis of this data, and then it is tested by forecasting the no of deaths and cases for next 7 days, where the proposed strategy provided excellent forecasting. The forecast models are developed for six countries including Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Iran, Italy, and China using polynomial regression of degrees 3-5. But the models are analyzed up to the 6th-degree and the suitable models are selected based on higher adjusted R-square (R 2 ) and lower root-meansquare error and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The values of R 2 are greater than 99% for all countries other than China whereas for China this R 2 was 97%.The high values of R 2 and Low value of MAPE statistics increase the validity of proposed models to forecast the total no cases and total no of deaths in all countries. Iran, Italy, and Afghanistan also show a mild decreasing trend but the number of cases is far higher than the decrease percentage. Although India is expected to have a consistent result, more or less it depicts some other biasing factors which should be figured out in separate research.

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Mathematical Modeling of Coronavirus Reproduction Rate with Policy and Behavioral Effects

Cited by 5 publications

References 36 publications

Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Health and Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Epidemic

Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Health and Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Epidemic

Review of Mathematical Modelling Techniques with Applications in Biosciences

Modeling and forecasting the total number of cases and deaths due to pandemic

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