Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana

Abstract

In this paper, Covid-19 patients with self-immunity is incorporated in the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered model is applied to describe the epidemiology of Covid-19 infection in Ghana. Based on data on the epidemiology of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana, we observed that, on an average, three persons contract the Covid-19 infection from an infected person daily based using the basic reproductive number ( ) derived from the SEIQR model. In addition, the threshold condition for the long term stability of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana is derived from this model. Based on the Dulac criterion, it was observed that for a long period of time the epidemiology of Covid-19 in Ghana will be under control. Again, we observed that both the transmission rate natural death rate of a person in the various classes mostly influence the spread of Covid-19 infection followed by the exposed rate from exposure class to the infected class, then the rate at which an infected person is quarantined and finally, the rate at an exposed person is quarantined. On the other hand, the rate at which an exposed person recovers from his/her have least influence on the spread of Covid-19 infection in the country. Nevertheless, the rates of birth, transmission of Covid-19 infection to a susceptible person, exposure to Covid-19 infection and Covid-19 patient who is quarantined by the facilities provided by the Ghana Health Service are in direct relationship with . However, the rates at which a quarantiner dies from a Covid-19 infection, an infected person dies from a Covid-19 infection, natural death from each class and the recoveries from an infected class, exposed class and quarantined class are in relationship with .

Role of academia in enhancing technology and innovation for a post COVID-19 recovery and growth

“…A mathematical modelling study by Barnes et al. was used to evaluate the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana [16] . Such studies can help create awareness on the need for respective national health authorities to intensify efforts in battling the pandemic and better prepare for future disease outbreaks.…”

The Analytic Solutions of the Fractional-Order Model for the Spatial Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Infection

“…The development of a mathematical model for understanding and unravelling the underlying mechanisms of the epidemiology of the COVID-19 disease has garnered interest from public health systems to academia in several different countries; the majority of these models focus on epidemics of the disease progression from one person to another person, as described by [1][2][3]. However, the COVID-19 disease originated in Wuhan, China, and geographically spread to other parts of the world as a pandemic disease [4].…”

Mathematical Modelling of the Spatial Epidemiology of COVID-19 with Different Diffusion Coefficients

“…e results of examining various COVID-19 infection formulations offer policymakers insights and are undoubtedly helpful in selecting models for the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection. Without taking into account the major spreaders and the influx of foreigners into the country, the authors in [3][4][5][6][7] modeled the epidemiology of COVID-19 in their respective countries. e COVID-19 pandemic in a country other than China, which involves the important factor responsible for the spatial spread of disease, requires a robust use of mathematics in order to explain and predict the major underlying mechanism and forecast trends.…”