Measuring Public Policy: Impacts of the Supplemental Security Income Program

Albritton, Robert B.

doi:10.2307/2111029

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…The impact of discontinuities in partisan control can be evaluated empirically through the use of a multiple interrupted time series (hereafter MITS) design similar to that discussed by Cook and Campbell (1979), Campbell (1969), Campbell and Stanley (1966), McDowell et al (1981), and Hibbs (1974), and employed in the empirical research of Lewis-Beck and Alford (1980), Albritton (1979), Lewis-Beck (1980), Moe (1982), and Garand and Gross ( 1984) . MITS is conceptually equivalent to running separate regressions for each time period and then determining the similarity of parameter estimates from one time period to the next.…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partisan Change and Shifting Expenditure Priorities in the American States, 1945-1978

Garand

1985

American Politics Quarterly

108

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This article examines the impact of shifts in partisan control of the governorship and state legislatures on longitudinal patterns of expenditure priorities for 38 states from 1945 to 1978. I suggest that such partisan interventions should have an impact on patterns of spending priorities over time only under two circumstances: (1) when the political parties within governmental institutions differ systematically in policy-relevant ways, and (2) when the governmental institution undergoing partisan change has the institutional power relative to other policymaking bodies to translate spending priorities into outcomes. Using a multiple interrupted time series analysis of trends in spending priorities for education, highways, welfare, and health and hospitals, it is found that, in general, partisan interventions do have a nontrivial impact on patterns of spending priorities over time, both in terms of the level (intercept) and trend (slope) of the spending priorities time series. In sum, it would appear that there is more than modest support for the general partisan intervention model of change in spending priorities over time.

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Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partisan Change and Shifting Expenditure Priorities in the American States, 1945-1978

Garand

1985

American Politics Quarterly

108

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“…More importantly for the purposes of this paper, the framework of analysis outlined by Glass and his colleagues remains appropriate in those instances -and this investigation represents one such instance -where the investigator utilizes data that is unaffected by cyclical and/or seasonal trends, and in which an immediate, permanent policy intervention effect is posited. Albritton (1979), for instance, has used the techniques developed by Glass et al 8. The term "pre-whitened" refers to a series that has been reduced to a "white noise" process -i.e., a process in which each random disturbance in the stochastic component of the series is assumed to be normally and independently distributed with zero mean, constant variance, and zero convariance (Pindyck and Rubinfeld, 1976, 453-454).…”

Section: What Implications Might Be Drawn For the Current Debate Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the British National Health Service: A Quasi‐experimental Study*

Yantek

1981

Policy Studies Journal

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This paper tests for possible effects of the implementation of the British National Health Service (NHS) upon the health of the British population. Although analysis does reveal statistically significant improvements in Great Britain's infant mortaUty rate concurrent with the implementation of the NHS, a comparison with other western European nations reveals similar improvements simultaneously with the British poUcy intervention. Thus, we cannot conclude that the NHS had a significant effect upon British health. A more important result, however, is the demonstration of the utiUty of both the Box-Jenkins techniques and, in conjunction, the nonequivalent control group quasi-experimental design as important tools for performing poUcy evaluations. *I would Uke to thank Robert Albritton and John Scholz for their comments and suggestions. A special word of thanks goes to Helmut Norpoth for his assistance with the statistical analyses performed in this paper. I, of course, retain fuU responsibiUty for any errors of judgment or interpretation. 706Health care programs are among the most frequently evaluated of all groupings of pubiic policies. Whether viewed as a consumer good (Paglin, 1974; Kiarman, 1965), as a public investment related to subsequent economic gain (Denison, 1962;Fuchs, 1973;Barlow, 1967;Mushkin, 1962), or as an end in itself -important if for no other reason than as a final product for human welfare (Mushkin and Collings, 1959) -public health has traditionally been regarded as one of the substantively most important areas of policy evaluation research.Frequently, however, evaluation research in the field of public health falls short of its nominal goal -evaluating health. This may happen for any one of several reasons. At a level far removed from the policy evaluator, the problems of public h^lth may prove so intractable as to necessitate a reconsideration of purpose by the agency charged with the task of policy implementation. Wildavsky (1979, Ch. 2) speaks of an agency's frequent need to make a "strategic retreat" from unattainable objectives. The most desirable goals sought by an agency entrusted with policy implementation often prove unrealizable because they require drastic changes in human behavior. Attainable objectives, on the other hand, tend to be those that can be met simply by a manipulation of government resources. An example of a strategic retreat from objectives in the health area is the collection of hea Ith-related policies of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society. When the goal of producing an improvement in the general level of health appeared to be unrealizable, it was decided that the program's emphasis wouid instead be shifted to the provision of equal access to medical care for all persons. Thus in this instance the object of study for the health policy evaiuator is no longer health per se, but rather the provision or distribution of health services (Beck, 1973).A second reason for the failure to evaluate the effectiveness of policies has to do with temporal constraints, it may take years...

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“…To deal with the multicollinearity in Models II and III one could transform the variables into first order differences, or go to an ARIMA model (Albritton, 1979). A combination of the trend variables would be difficult to justify theoretically.…”

Section: Three Linear Trend Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With this understanding, recent time-trend studies have attempted to depict the time dimension of policy consequences through extensions of regression techniques (MeCrone and Hardy, 1978;Lewis-Beck, 1979;Albritton, 1979;Hardy and Newcomer, 1980). Trend models have been used to detect shifts in governmental expenditures, case loads, and enforcement actions which correspond to distinct changes (interruptions) in statutes or administrative policies.…”

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confidence: 99%

Analyzing Policy Impact: Selection of a Linear Trend Model

Newcomer

Hardy

1980

Policy Studies Journal

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Policy analysts, as well as politicians, have shown great interest in assessing both short‐term and long‐term consequences of public policies in recent years. Recent time‐trend studies have attempted to depict the time dimension of policy consequences through extensions of regression techniques. This study examines three linear trend models which have been used to depict policy impact through time‐series analyses, and identifies the relative advantages and disadvantages associated with the use of each model. The three models are applied in a quasi‐experimental time‐series design to time‐series of per capita state expenditures for large cities, in eight states, over a twenty‐year period. Differences in degrees of multicollinearity and autocorrelation inherent in the three models are discussed, and the model providing the most conservative coefficient estimates is identified.

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Measuring Public Policy: Impacts of the Supplemental Security Income Program

Cited by 21 publications

References 8 publications

Partisan Change and Shifting Expenditure Priorities in the American States, 1945-1978

Partisan Change and Shifting Expenditure Priorities in the American States, 1945-1978

Impacts of the British National Health Service: A Quasi‐experimental Study*

Analyzing Policy Impact: Selection of a Linear Trend Model

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