Measuring the Economic Risk of COVID‐19

Abstract

We measure the economic risk of COVID-19 at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the current prevalence of confirmed cases, we use data from 2014-2018 and a conceptual disaster risk model to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of the epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard, the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy's resilience (i.e. its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of this pandemic is particularly high in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad hoc equal weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, an algorithm that assumes equal hazard for all countries, and one based on estimated weights using previous aggregated disability-adjusted life years losses associated with communicable diseases. Policy Implications • Most of the economic risks from COVID-19 are in countries and regions that do not get much global attention in this pandemic-Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Central Asia.

The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early Evidence

“…The global economy is already experiencing substantial contractions as a result of Covid-19. With most commodity prices dropping (World Bank, 2020), developing countries are expected to be particularly affected and to see an increase in poverty (Melaine and Nonvide, 2020; Noy et al, 2020). Numerous studies suggest that worsened economic conditions can trigger and intensify fighting as economically deprived individuals are recruited into rebel groups (Brückner and Ciccone, 2010; Chaudoin et al, 2017; Collier and Hoeffler, 2004; Humphreys and Weinstein, 2008).…”

Impact of Heat Index and Ultraviolet Index on COVID-19 in Major Cities of Pakistan

“…The countries with low positive and mortality rate do not mean that they have faced less economic impacts. 17 The developed nations like USA (17.061%), Canada (10.573%), Japan (10.936%), and Western European and Scandinavian countries spend high percentage of their gross domestic product (GDP) to healthcare. Whereas the four big countries of south Asia, that is, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka spend 3.55%, 2.899%, 3.535%, and 3.811% of their GDPs to health Care.…”

The Political Economy of the Next Pandemic

“…But the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions crosses borders just as easily as the Coronavirus, and pandonomics strongly affects the Global South. The economic risk of the pandemic is not concentrated where the death rate is highest, but in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Least Developed Countries in South Asia (Noy et al, 2020). The economic impact was felt by those countries before the disease reached developing countries and emerging markets, when the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic spread to the Americas by the end of May 2020.…”