Impact of Heat Index and Ultraviolet Index on COVID-19 in Major Cities of Pakistan

Abstract

Introduction: The world population is under the grip of global pandemic of COVID-19. The present study analyzed relationship between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 in three major cities of Pakistan, that is, Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar. Methods: The impacts of heat index (HI) and ultraviolet index (UVI) over daily COVID-19 cases have examined to identify its transmission and propagation. The significance of basic reproductive number ( R 0 ), growth rate ( G r ) and doubling time ( T d ) of COVID-19 with HI and UVI was determined. Results: Both indices show a significant positive correlation (at 5% significance level) to R 0 , T d , and G r of COVID-19 patients. Our results showed that the minimum threshold temperature of 33 °C for HI (with a positive variation of 3 °C to 5 °C) put a significant impact on new cases. Conclusion: HI and UVI impacted significantly to decline COVID-19 cases over the region.

Prevalence and Associated Risk Factor of COVID-19 and Impacts of Meteorological and Social Variables on Its Propagation in Punjab, Pakistan

“…These all meteorological parameters significantly impacted to lessen the COVID-19 projection over the Punjab province. The same results have been obtained by Adnan et al 2020 over the major cities of Pakistan. Moreover, the aerosol concentration was high during May and June due to which the COVID-19 cases increased rapidly during these two months.…”

“…More importantly, weather also played a significant role to subside the COVID-19 cases after the mid-June, 2020. Recent study shows heat index (temperature, humidity) and ultraviolet index played significant role to subside COVID-19 over major cities of Pakistan including Lahore (Adnan et al 2020 ). The cities of Lahore and Islamabad are the hub of business, financial and government functionaries, and the majority of the population traveled there each day from the neighboring regions.…”

Effects of climate variables on the transmission of COVID-19: a systematic review of 62 ecological studies

“…Although the effects of climate variables on COVID-19 activity varied among different country populations, time units, and analytical methods, there were also similar results in the included studies, and especially most of the literature showed that higher temperatures may have largely influenced the spread of coronavirus and suppressed the pandemic. Among the included studies, fifty-eight studies explored the relationship between temperature and COVID-19 transmission, but only one study investigated the heat index, which was found to be positively correlated with the daily basic reproductive number (R 0 ), growth rate, and doubling time (Adnan et al 2021 ). Additionally, another study adopted the mean equivalent temperature and found it to be a noninfluential factor on COVID-19 activity (Jamshidi et al 2020 ).…”

Role of meteorological factors in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

“…While case counts are subject to the influence of reporting delay and underreporting, which vary across locations and are thus difficult to control, the reproduction number is a direct estimate of the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2, quantifying the average number of infections caused by one infection in the population. A small number of studies previously analyzed the association between temperature, humidity, or UV radiation and reproduction number 20 – 22 , 30 . Wang et al found that a 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a reduction in the effective reproduction number of 0.026 in China and 0.020 in the U.S., and a 1% increase in RH was associated with a reduction in the effective reproduction number of 0.0076 in China and 0.0080 in the U.S. 20 .…”

“…Wang et al found that a 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a reduction in the effective reproduction number of 0.026 in China and 0.020 in the U.S., and a 1% increase in RH was associated with a reduction in the effective reproduction number of 0.0076 in China and 0.0080 in the U.S. 20 . Adnan et al reported a significant negative association between UV index (a standard measurement of the strength of sunburn-producing UV radiation) and basic reproduction number in major cities of Pakistan 30 . These associations are consistent with our findings but were not supported by two studies in China that examined the basic reproduction number: the first found no association between temperature or UV radiation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission 22 ; the second found no association between absolute humidity and SARS-CoV-2 transmission 21 .…”