Meat and Milk Consumption 2050: the Potential for Demand‐side Solutions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction

Revell, Brian J.

doi:10.1111/1746-692x.12103

Cited by 24 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Pastoral systems produce animal foods using forages and thus utilize much less human-edible protein compared to intensive production systems (Steinfeld, 2012). In 2050, the global demand for crop production is projected to increase by 100 to 110% (Tilman et al, 2011) and meat and milk demand will increase by 60% (Brian, 2015). Food demand will increase most in low-income countries due to FIGURE 1 | Benefits of pastoralism (adapted from Blench, 2001;and Nyariki and Amwata, 2019).…”

Section: Population Growth Food Production and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This increment in global population along with increasing living standard and incomes is increasing global food demand. For instance, milk and meat demand will increased about 60% by 2050 (Brian, 2015). This will not only force intensification of crop and livestock production but will increase climate change risk due to land use changes and increasing total GHG emissions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Review: Impact of Food and Climate Change on Pastoral Industries

Uddin

Kebreab

2020

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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The industrialization of agriculture based on inexpensive fossil fuels allowed for unprecedented levels of food production and population growth, but simultaneously contributed to a threat to food systems and population well-being: climate change. This paper analyses the impacts and adaptations available to the world's pastoral production systems including potential mitigation and adaptation strategies. The current food system is under pressure to satisfy the needs of the increasing population with already limited natural resources particularly land and water, and now increasingly under pressure due to climate change. Increasing incomes from greater number of people have increased demand for animal source foods. As a result, domestic livestock numbers are rising, particularly in low-income countries with greater dependence on pasture for animal feed. The carrying capacity of pastured land is limited; therefore, increasing animal numbers may cause environmental degradation and loss of productivity from pastoral industries. In some countries, the increasing demand has prompted some to burn forestlands and convert them into crop production, and after the land is degraded into pasture mainly for raising large ruminants. Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ambient temperatures are predicted to make a number of changes to the growth of herbage for animals. Several strategies can be implemented to optimize the pasture-based food system, including choosing the right breed, improving reproductive efficiency, improving grazing management, and maintaining an animal feed base. The global challenge is to meet our food production needs while sustaining our environment. Producers in all income categories have a role to play in adapting to these challenges.

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Section: Population Growth Food Production and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review: Impact of Food and Climate Change on Pastoral Industries

Uddin

Kebreab

2020

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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“…Following review, there were 28 included studies, of which 27 were modelling studies, with one cost-benefit modelling analysis. [28] The locations of these studies were the UK ( 5), [17,[29][30][31][32] international (4), [33][34][35][36] Spain ( 4), [37][38][39][40] the EU (3), [41][42][43] France (3), [44][45][46] Sweden (2), [47,48] The Netherlands, [28] Switzerland, [49] Denmark, [18] Canada, [50] Australia, [51] Norway [52] and Belgium. [4] Seven studies also included a subsidy on food groups.…”

Section: Review Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach is similar to several other modelling studies, which taxed meat (beef, pork and chicken [50], Beef and sheep meat [34,36] or animal products [31,38,41]. Taxes have been set to a range of percentages or set amounts per tCO 2 -eq for specific high GHG emitting foods [34,36,41,50] and one modelling study presented both approaches [31]. A 20% tax was chosen following the same rationale as S1-S3.…”

Section: Modelling Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can a greenhouse gas emissions tax on food also be healthy and equitable? A systematized review and modelling study from Aotearoa New Zealand

Cleghorn

Mulder

Macmillan

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Introduction: Policies to mitigate climate change are essential. The objective of this paper was to estimate the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) food taxes and assess whether such a tax could also have health benefits and reduce ethnic inequalities in health in Aotearoa NZ. Methods: We undertook a systemised review on GHG food taxes to inform four tax scenarios, including one combined with a subsidy. These scenarios were modelled to estimate lifetime impacts on quality adjusted health years (QALY), health inequities by ethnicity, GHG emissions, health system costs and food costs to the individual. Results: 28 modelling studies on food tax policies were identified. Taxes resulted in decreased consumption of the targeted foods (e.g., -15.4% in beef/ruminant consumption, N=12 studies) and an average decrease of 8.3% in GHG emissions (N=19 studies). Using this review, we conceptualized four scenarios: a GHG weighted tax on all foods; a GHG weighted tax on food groups with the highest 50% of emissions (high emitters); A GHG weighted tax on high emitters combined with a fruit and vegetable subsidy; A 20% tax on high emitters. The GHG weighted tax on all foods scenario had the largest health gains and costs savings (455,800 QALYs and NZ$8.8 billion), followed by the tax-subsidy scenario (410,400 QALYs and NZ$6.4 billion). All scenarios were associated with reduced GHG emissions (between 4.2% and 7.0% of the baseline GHG emissions from food). Age standardised per capita QALYs were between 1.6 and 2.1 times higher for Māori than non-Māori. Conclusion: Applying taxes that target foods with high GHG emissions has the potential to be effective for reducing GHG emissions and to result in co-benefits for population health. Combining a GHG food tax with a fruit and vegetable subsidy may help reduce the negative effects on household food expenditure of such a tax.

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“…The propositions of introducing market instruments such as subsidies for sustainable and organic foods, as well as the taxation of meat and dairy products, are also increasingly being discussed. Although such tools are rather sound (Chloupkova, Tinggaard Svendsen, Zdechovsky, 2018), it should be verified in advance whether less expensive alternative plant products are available (Wijesinha-Bettoni, Latu, Osornprasop, Kubuabola, 2019) and how society is prepared for introducing such far-reaching interventions in food consumption (Chalmers, Revoredo-Giha, Shackley, 2016) and what effect they will bring (Revell, 2015).…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship Between Consumer Behaviour, Attitudes and Acceptance of Public Policy Tools Advancing Sustainable Food Consumption

Wielicka-Regulska

2020

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

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Research background: The great importance of food consumption for the sustainability of food systems means that active public policy in this area can have a lot of positive effects. Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to present the challenges facing the agri-food sector and to study consumer attitudes towards seasonal and organic food, local food, urban agriculture, food waste and meat consumption, carbon footprints and how these attitudes relate to the acceptance of public policy tools (a tax on junk food, a green public procurement, a deposit on plastic bottles, a tax-free donation of food to public benefit organisations, a fee for wasted food for large retailers) that could transform food distribution and consumption. Research methodology: cardinality tables and interdependence analysis using Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient Results: The study revealed that most respondents buy seasonal food when possible and limit meat consumption to some extent. They are rarely influenced by the impact of food on the climate. Most people are in favour of offering dishes based on local food in public institutions with catering (hospitals, schools, prisons, etc.). Most respondents were negative about gardening for food production. Involvement in local food was associated with a higher acceptance for green public procurement and higher VAT on junk food. Novelty: Both the range of considered policy instruments and the analysis of their acceptance in the context of selected behaviours and attitudes have not been previously studied and make up a new area of inquiry essential in the debate on sustainable food consumption.

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Meat and Milk Consumption 2050: the Potential for Demand‐side Solutions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction

Cited by 24 publications

References 7 publications

Review: Impact of Food and Climate Change on Pastoral Industries

Review: Impact of Food and Climate Change on Pastoral Industries

Can a greenhouse gas emissions tax on food also be healthy and equitable? A systematized review and modelling study from Aotearoa New Zealand

The Relationship Between Consumer Behaviour, Attitudes and Acceptance of Public Policy Tools Advancing Sustainable Food Consumption

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