Mechanistic models for the spatial spread of species under climate change

Leroux, Shawn J.; Larrivée, Maxim; Boucher‐Lalonde, Véronique; Hurford, Amy; Zuloaga, Juan; Kerr, Jeremy T.; Lutscher, Frithjof

doi:10.1890/12-1407.1

Cited by 92 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…Spatial dynamics have direct impacts on the viability of species affected by anthropogenic change (e.g., Potapov and Lewis 2004;Leroux et al 2013), the cost of controlling invasive species (e.g., Fagan et al 2002), and the success of species reintroductions (e.g., Krkošek et al 2007;Tinker et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generational Spreading Speed and the Dynamics of Population Range Expansion

Bateman

Neubert

Krkošek

et al. 2015

The American Naturalist

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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.. Online enhancement: appendix.abstract: Some of the most fundamental quantities in population ecology describe the growth and spread of populations. Population dynamics are often characterized by the annual rate of increase, l, or the generational rate of increase, R 0 . Analyses involving R 0 have deepened our understanding of disease dynamics and life-history complexities beyond that afforded by analysis of annual growth alone. While range expansion is quantified by the annual spreading speed, a spatial analog of l, an R 0 -like expression for the rate of spread is missing. Using integrodifference models, we derive the appropriate generational spreading speed for populations with complex (stage-structured) life histories. The resulting measure, relevant to locations near the expanding edge of a (re)colonizing population, incorporates both local population growth and explicit spatial dispersal rather than solely growth across a population, as is the case for R 0 . The calculations for generational spreading speed are often simpler than those for annual spreading speed, and analytic or partial analytic solutions can yield insight into the processes that facilitate or slow a population's spatial spread. We analyze the spatial dynamics of green crabs, sea otters, and teasel as examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our methods and the intuitive insights that they afford.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generational Spreading Speed and the Dynamics of Population Range Expansion

Bateman

Neubert

Krkošek

et al. 2015

The American Naturalist

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“…The search for processes that affect biological dispersal and sources of variability observed in ecological range expansions is fundamental to the study of invasive species dynamics (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10), shifts in species ranges due to climate or environmental change (11)(12)(13), and, in general, the spatial distribution of species (3,(14)(15)(16). Dispersal is the key agent that brings favorable genotypes or highly competitive species into new ranges much faster than any other ecological or evolutionary process (1,17).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging predictable features of replicated biological invasion fronts

Giometto

Rinaldo

Carrara

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

121

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Biological dispersal shapes species' distribution and affects their coexistence. The spread of organisms governs the dynamics of invasive species, the spread of pathogens, and the shifts in species ranges due to climate or environmental change. Despite its relevance for fundamental ecological processes, however, replicated experimentation on biological dispersal is lacking, and current assessments point at inherent limitations to predictability, even in the simplest ecological settings. In contrast, we show, by replicated experimentation on the spread of the ciliate Tetrahymena sp. in linear landscapes, that information on local unconstrained movement and reproduction allows us to predict reliably the existence and speed of traveling waves of invasion at the macroscopic scale. Furthermore, a theoretical approach introducing demographic stochasticity in the Fisher-Kolmogorov framework of reaction-diffusion processes captures the observed fluctuations in range expansions. Therefore, predictability of the key features of biological dispersal overcomes the inherent biological stochasticity. Our results establish a causal link from the short-term individual level to the long-term, broad-scale population patterns and may be generalized, possibly providing a general predictive framework for biological invasions in natural environments.hat is the source of variance in the spread rates of biological invasions? The search for processes that affect biological dispersal and sources of variability observed in ecological range expansions is fundamental to the study of invasive species dynamics (1-10), shifts in species ranges due to climate or environmental change (11-13), and, in general, the spatial distribution of species (3,(14)(15)(16). Dispersal is the key agent that brings favorable genotypes or highly competitive species into new ranges much faster than any other ecological or evolutionary process (1,17). Understanding the potential and realized dispersal is thus key to ecology in general (18). When organisms' spread occurs on the timescale of multiple generations, it is the byproduct of processes that take place at finer spatial and temporal scales that are the local movement and reproduction of individuals (5, 10). The main difficulty in causally understanding dispersal is thus to upscale processes that happen at the shortterm individual level to long-term and broad-scale population patterns (5,(18)(19)(20). Furthermore, the large fluctuations observed in range expansions have been claimed to reflect an intrinsic lack of predictability of the phenomenon (21). Whether the variability observed in nature or in experimental ensembles might be accounted for by systematic differences between landscapes or by demographic stochasticity affecting basic vital rates of the organisms involved is an open research question (10,18,21,22).Modeling of biological dispersal established the theoretical framework of reaction-diffusion processes (1-3, 23-25), which now finds common application in dispersal ecology (5,14,22,(26)(27)(28)(2...

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“…Harsch et al [10] extended model (1) to age-and stage-structured populations. Potapov and Lewis [11], Berestycki et al [12], and Leroux et al [13], in turn, obtained similar results using reaction-diffusion models. One advantage of model (1) is that it quickly engenders a simple eigenvalue problem that determines the viability of a moving population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 63%