Mediterranean Sea climatic indices: monitoring  long-term variability and climate changes

Iona, Athanasia; Θεοδώρου, Α.; Sofianos, Sarantis; Watelet, Sylvain; Troupin, Charles; Beckers, Jean-Marie

doi:10.5194/essd-10-1829-2018

Cited by 38 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Indeed, it has been shown that oceans acted as sinks for more than 90% of the extra energy balance associated with climate change between 1971 and 2010 [7], thus raising SST in the global oceans. Regarding the Mediterranean region, observations have permitted us to calculate an increasing trend in OHC of 0.8 ± 0.1 W/m 2 in the 0-700 m layer [8], with an increasing trend after 2005 [9]. From a long SST series recorded at a measuring site in the western Mediterranean basin, [10] also found a warming trend for both SST and sea temperature at different depths.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

A Warming Mediterranean: 38 Years of Increasing Sea Surface Temperature

2020

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The Mediterranean basin has been classified as a hot-spot for climate change. The Mediterranean Sea plays a fundamental regulatory role in the regional climate. We have analyzed the largest available and complete time series (1982–2019) of blended sea surface temperature (SST) data to study its seasonal cycle and look for a possible warming trend in the basin. From the analysis of the Mediterranean mean SST time series, a new temporal seasonal division is derived that differs from the one used in atmospheric climatology. Then, the SST time series were decomposed into their seasonal and trend components, and a consistent warming trend of 0.035 °C/year was obtained. The nature of this trend has been investigated, indicating a higher warming trend for both maximum and high/summer SST values than for the winter/colder ones. This reinforces the consistency of the SST increase since it is not only based on the presence of extreme values, but on a homogeneous basin global increase of high SST records as well. Although warming is found throughout the Mediterranean basin, the spatial variability found leads to the division of the basin into three distinct subareas regarding warming.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

A Warming Mediterranean: 38 Years of Increasing Sea Surface Temperature

2020

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“…4b). The most recent reanalyses of the climatic trends in salinity show an increase in the area at different depths (Iona et al 2018), but the sources of uncertainty associated with these projections (including river discharges) suggest that they should be interpreted with caution. The projections of surface chlorophyll-a presented even higher uncertainties than salinity for our study area.…”

Section: Biogeochemical Projection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future distribution of early life stages of small pelagic fishes in the northwestern Mediterranean

et al. 2020

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We studied the effect of climate change on the potential spawning habitats of two marine small pelagic fishes. We examined the projected changes in the potential spawning habitat of the summerspawning anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) in the northwestern Mediterranean by combining the regionalized projections of RCP scenarios with an existing species distribution model (SDM). The SDM was based on a separate generalized additive model for the eggs and larvae of the two species computed from ichthyoplankton sampling that was conducted with simultaneous readings of surface temperature, salinity and chlorophyll-a values as predictor variables. The SDM was projected for the 2010 decade, which represented the present-day conditions, with these environmental variables obtained from the regionalized POLCOMS-ERSEM biogeochemical model forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The comparison of the presentday projection results with the projections for the middle and final decades of the 21 st century showed that the suitability of the spawning habitat as defined by the anchovy eggs model was likely to increase over time under RCP4.5 or decrease slightly under RCP8.5, but the habitat for anchovy larvae was likely to decrease in all cases. Loss of habitat was projected to be particularly important in the south of the study area on the Ebre River delta continental shelf. Conversely, the probability of round sardinella occurrence will significantly increase under both scenarios. The potential habitat of this species, which is of subtropical origin, is likely to shift northwards. The limitations of the existing models to extrapolate the current results to future scenarios are discussed regarding i) the uncertainty in the projections of driving environmental variables (e.g., chlorophyll-a), ii) the simplified nature of the projection models, which did not capture the dynamics of the early life stages of the fish at a small scale, and iii) insufficient consideration of important drivers, such as larval transport or retention by mesoscale hydrographic phenomena.

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“…The seasonal cycle has been removed. a result of the direct forcing from the atmosphere associated with the hemispheric patterns that are known to influence central Mediterranean temperatures and precipitation (like the East Atlantic pattern; Ionita et al, 2015;Scorzini et al, 2018). The bottom variability of residual salinity is likely largely due to the advection of salt from the southeast through the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation (Orlić et al, 2006).…”

Section: Interannual Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Present climate trends and variability in thermohaline properties of the northern Adriatic shelf

et al. 2019

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Abstract. The paper documents seasonality, interannual-to-decadal variability, and trends in temperature, salinity, and density over a transect in the shallow northern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea) between 1979 and 2017. The amplitude of seasonality decreases with depth and is much larger in temperature and density than in salinity. Time series of temperature and salinity are correlated in the surface but not in the bottom layer. Trends in temperature are large (up to 0.6 ∘C over 10 years), significant through the area, and not sensitive to the sampling interval and time series length. In contrast, trends in salinity are largely small and insignificant and depend on the time series length. The warming of the area is more during spring and summer. Such large temperature trends and their spatial variability emphasize the importance of maintaining regular long-term observations for the proper estimation of thermohaline trends and their variability. This is particularly important in regions which are key for driving thermohaline circulation such as the northern Adriatic, with the potential to affect biogeochemical and ecological properties of the whole Adriatic Sea.

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Mediterranean Sea climatic indices: monitoring long-term variability and climate changes

Cited by 38 publications

References 46 publications

A Warming Mediterranean: 38 Years of Increasing Sea Surface Temperature

A Warming Mediterranean: 38 Years of Increasing Sea Surface Temperature

Future distribution of early life stages of small pelagic fishes in the northwestern Mediterranean

Present climate trends and variability in thermohaline properties of the northern Adriatic shelf

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