Nonlinear self-guided propagation of intense long-wave infrared (LWIR) laser pulses is of significant recent interest owing to the high critical power for self-focusing collapse at long wavelengths. This promises transmission of very high power in a single filament as opposed to beam breakup and multi-filamentation. Here, using the most current picture of LWIR ionization processes in air, we present extensive simulations showing that isolated avalanche sites centered on aerosols can arrest self-focusing, providing a route to self-guided propagation of moderate intensity LWIR pulses in outdoor environments.Femtosecond filamentation of intense laser pulses in gases and condensed media arises from the interplay of diffraction, Kerr self-focusing, and collapse arrest by plasma-induced refraction, enabling high intensity self-guided propagation over extended distances [1]. Filamentation occurs for pulses whose peak power exceeds a critical value 𝑃 = 3.77𝜆 /8𝜋𝑛 𝑛 for Gaussian beams, where 𝜆 is the laser wavelength, and 𝑛 and 𝑛 are the medium's linear and nonlinear indices of refraction. In "standard" filamentation, self-induced Kerr lensing focuses the beam until multiphoton or tunneling ionization of the medium and associated plasma defocusing arrests pulse collapse. As input power is increased well beyond 𝑃 , the beam is unstable to breakup into multiple filaments, limiting the peak power delivered in a single high intensity channel. The 𝑃 ∝ 𝜆 scaling indicates higher multi-filamentation thresholds for longer wavelengths, stimulating recent interest in mid-IR and long-wave IR (LWIR) filamentation [2-9]. For LWIR pulses, new mechanisms have been proposed for collapse arrest, including the formation of optical shocks and harmonic walk-off for short (<1 ps) pulses [5][6][7] and avalanche ionization seeded by many-body induced ionization for longer (>1 ps) pulses [8][9][10].