MESSAGE–MACRO: linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively

Messner, S.; Schrattenholzer, Leo

doi:10.1016/s0360-5442(99)00063-8

Cited by 279 publications

(122 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The analysis has been carried out with MESSAGE, a systems-engineering optimization model with a detailed technological representation, and MACRO, a top-down stylized macro-economic model [13). In MESSAGE-MACRO, the global energy system is disaggregated in 11 regions.…”

Section: A Hydrogen Scenario---quantification and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The hydrogen economy in the 21st century: a sustainable development scenario

Barreto

Makihira

Riahi

2003

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

830

359

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A long-term hydrogen-based scenario of the global energy system is described in qualitative and quantitative terms here, illustrating the key role of hydrogen in a long-term transition toward a clean and sustainable energy future. In an affluent, low-population-growth, equity and sustainability-oriented B l-H2 world, hydrogen technologies experience substantial but plausible performance and costs improvements and are able to diffuse extensively. Corresponding production and distribution infrastructures emerge. The global hydrogen production system, initially fossil based, progressively shifts toward renewable sources. Fuel cells and other hydrogen-using technologies play a major role in a substantial transformation toward a more flexible, less vulnerable, distributed energy system which meets energy needs in a cleaner, more efficient and cost-effective way. This profound structural transformation of the global energy system brings substantial improvements in energy intensity and security of supply and results in an accelerated decarbonization of the energy mix, with subsequent relatively low climate impacts. Such energy-system path might still not be sufficient to protect against the risk of high climate sensitivities, but hydrogen-based technologies emerge as flexible options for the energy system and, thus, would be prime candidates for a risk management strategy against an uncertain climate future.

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Section: A Hydrogen Scenario---quantification and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the systems-engineering MESSAGE model [13), technical, economic, and environmental parameters for over 400 technologies are specified explicitly. Technological change is introduced exogenously, that is, performance of technologies improves at predefined rates over time.…”

Section: Technological Changementioning

confidence: 99%

The hydrogen economy in the 21st century: a sustainable development scenario

Barreto

Makihira

Riahi

2003

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

830

359

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…This section briefly summarizes the main features of the modeling framework MESSAGE-MACRO (Messner and Schrattenholzer, 2000), which was used for the development of the scenarios analyzed in this paper. In particular, we describe how the concept of technological learning is introduced into the models and give a brief description of the reference energy system with focus on the representation of carbon capture technologies.…”

Section: Representation Of Technological Change In Message-macromentioning

confidence: 99%

05/01292 Technological learning for carbon capture and sequestration technologies

2005

Fuel and Energy Abstracts

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This paper analyzes potentials of carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCT) in a set of long-term energy-economic-environmental scenarios based on alternative assumptions for technological progress of CCT. In order to get a reasonable guide to future technological progress in managing CO 2 emissions, we review past experience in controlling sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions from power plants. By doing so, we quantify a ''learning curve'' for CCT, which describes the relationship between the improvement of costs due to accumulation of experience in CCT construction. We incorporate the learning curve into the energy-modeling framework MESSAGE-MACRO and develop greenhouse gas emissions scenarios of economic, demographic, and energy demand development, where alternative policy cases lead to the stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) by the end of the 21st century. We quantify three types of contributors to the carbon emissions mitigation: (1) demand reductions due to the increased price of energy, (2) fuel switching primarily away from coal, and (3) carbon capture and sequestration from fossil fuels. Due to the assumed technological learning, costs of the emissions reduction for CCT drop rapidly and in parallel with the massive introduction of CCT on the global scale. Compared to scenarios based on static cost assumptions for CCT, the contribution of carbon sequestration is about 50% higher in the case of learning, resulting in cumulative sequestration of CO 2 ranging from 150 to 250 billion (10 9 ) tons with carbon during the 21st century. Also, carbon values (tax) across scenarios (to meet the 550 ppmv carbon concentration constraint) are between 2% and 10% lower in the case of learning for CCT by 2100. The results illustrate that assumptions on

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“…Use of this approach for analysis of the transport technologies would face substantial barriers, as will be made evident in the discussion to follow. The most common approach, however, has been to couple a simple macro-economic sector, producing a single non-energy good, to an engineering process model that can handle the necessary energy sector detail-e.g., Global 2100 (Manne and Richels, 1992) and MESSAGE-MACRO (Messner and Schrattenholzer, 2000). Despite the contributions made by these latter efforts, they are of limited use for analysis of a large energy-and emissions-intensive sector like transportation.…”

Section: Technology Choice and Market Interactionmentioning

confidence: 99%

05/01831 Technology detail in a multisector CGE model: Transport under climate policy

2005

Fuel and Energy Abstracts

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The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change. It seeks to provide leadership in understanding scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy assessments that serve the needs of ongoing national and international discussions. To this end, the Program brings together an interdisciplinary group from two established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers bridge many key areas of the needed intellectual work, and additional essential areas are covered by other MIT departments, by collaboration with the Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biology Laboratory (MBL) at Woods Hole, and by short-and long-term visitors to the Program. The Program involves sponsorship and active participation by industry, government, and non-profit organizations.To inform processes of policy development and implementation, climate change research needs to focus on improving the prediction of those variables that are most relevant to economic, social, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas and atmospheric aerosol assumptions underlying climate analysis need to be related to the economic, technological, and political forces that drive emissions, and to the results of international agreements and mitigation. Further, assessments of possible societal and ecosystem impacts, and analysis of mitigation strategies, need to be based on realistic evaluation of the uncertainties of climate science.This report is one of a series intended to communicate research results and improve public understanding of climate issues, thereby contributing to informed debate about the climate issue, the uncertainties, and the economic and social implications of policy alternatives. Titles in the Report Series to date are listed on the inside back cover.

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MESSAGE–MACRO: linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively

Cited by 279 publications

References 4 publications

The hydrogen economy in the 21st century: a sustainable development scenario

The hydrogen economy in the 21st century: a sustainable development scenario

05/01292 Technological learning for carbon capture and sequestration technologies

05/01831 Technology detail in a multisector CGE model: Transport under climate policy

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