Meta‐replication, sampling bias, and multi‐scale model selection: A case study on snow leopard (Panthera uncia) in western China

Abstract

Replicated multiple scale species distribution models (SDMs) have become increasingly important to identify the correct variables determining species distribution and their influences on ecological responses. This study explores multi‐scale habitat relationships of the snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ) in two study areas on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau of western China. Our primary objectives were to evaluate the degree to which snow leopard habitat relationships, expressed by predictors, scales of response, and magnitude of effects, were consistent across study areas or locally landcape‐specific. We coupled univariate scale optimization and the maximum entropy algorithm to produce multivariate SDMs, inferring the relative suitability for the species by ensembling top performing models. We optimized the SDMs based on average omission rate across the top models and ensembles’ overlap with a simulated reference model. Comparison of SDMs in the two study areas highlighted landscape‐specific responses to limiting factors. These were dependent on the effects of the hydrological network, anthropogenic features, topographic complexity, and the heterogeneity of the landcover patch mosaic. Overall, even accounting for specific local differences, we found general landscape attributes associated with snow leopard ecological requirements, consisting of a positive association with uplands and ridges, aggregated low‐contrast landscapes, and large extents of grassy and herbaceous vegetation. As a means to evaluate the performance of two bias correction methods, we explored their effects on three datasets showing a range of bias intensities. The performance of corrections depends on the bias intensity; however, density kernels offered a reliable correction strategy under all circumstances. This study reveals the multi‐scale response of snow leopards to environmental attributes and confirms the role of meta‐replicated study designs for the identification of spatially varying limiting factors. Furthermore, this study makes important contributions to the ongoing discussion about the best approaches for sampling bias correction.

Analysis of Conservation Gaps and Landscape Connectivity for Snow Leopard in Qilian Mountains of China

“…At present, past investigations in the Qilian Mountain Area have been largely confined to Gansu Province, with fewer studies conducted in Qinghai Province. Research that has been published has predominately focused on conflicts between humans and snow leopard [23], the effect of human and natural environmental variables on snow leopard site-use patterns [24], model selection for various scale species distribution models [25], and genetic structure [26]. These studies identifying the conservation gap of snow leopard habitats and the influence of major roadways on habitat connectivity have received much less attention, but are critical for targeted conservation management of this species and its sympatric species in the Qilian Mountain range.…”

Modeling Distribution and Habitat Suitability for the Snow Leopard in Bhutan

“…Species distribution models (SDMs) approximate speciesspecific habitat suitability and can be effective tools for conservation management and planning (Hammed et al, 2020;Thinley et al, 2021). They are often referred to as habitat suitability models (HSMs) or ecological niche models (ENMs) (Barbet-Massin et al, 2012;Atzeni et al, 2020;Hammed et al, 2020;Thinley et al, 2021). Based on the relationship between species occurrences and environmental factors, SDMs essentially assign suitability values to an area to predict its suitability for a target species (Bai et al, 2018;Watts et al, 2019;Thinley et al, 2021).…”

Identifying priority core habitats and corridors for effective conservation of brown bears in Iran

“…To reduce spatial autocorrelation in the occurrence points, which can bias model predictions, we spatially filtered points prior to analysis 26,61 . Based on the mean size of male brown bear home ranges in Turkey (83 km 2 ) 62 , circles of 5 km-radius were centered on each presence point to exclude proximal points using the Spatially Rarify Occurrence Data tool in the SDMtoolbox 63 .…”